^{The Mammoth look to rebound on their last game on this road trip}

The best thing to do after a bad loss is to have a short memory, or at least that’s what the common mindset is. I don’t always believe that’s the case. I think they can forget the game, sure, but they need to remember the feeling to make sure they don’t show up like that again.

Tonight’s a great time to learn that lesson and put it into practice. The Mammoth look to lick their wounds of the previous game up in Buffalo

The Buffalo Sabres, fresh from their division championship and city-rejuvenating playoff berth, had high expectations entering the season. Those expectations have not been met through 4 games, however, as they have had some shaky performances to start the season.

Buffalo is currently 2-2, having lost to the Dallas Stars 4-0 in their previous game. That contest saw Buffalo’s power play fall deeper into despair, sitting currently at 0 for 13. Worse, their goaltending is inexplicably bad juts 4 games in. Starter, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who looked so good in the playoffs and the end of last year, is posting a sub .800 save percentage and is giving up more than 4GAA. The Sabres currently sit 24th in goals for, and goals allowed, per game. That is not a recipe for success.

Part of the troubles lie in their offseason moves. Alex Tuch was a sign and trade, which immediately left a hole of 30+ goals for the offense to make up. Tuch also was key on their power play, contributing 7 of his 33 tallies with the man advantage. Missing Tuch’s veteran presence in all aspects of the game has really caused disarray in their system.

Tage Thompson – my ideal trade target from Buffalo before we landed JJ Peterka – remains an elite playmaker in the league. Even with a struggling offense, Tage has netted 2 goals and adding 2 helpers, to account for 40% of Buffalo’s goals. Despite his elite play, coaching has put his line in a blender in almost every game so far. Josh Norris and Josh Doan, who both had good seasons last year, failed to produce much chemistry on the top line. Jiri Kulich and Peyton Krebs, tonight’s presumed top line, were a late shuffle by coach Lindsay Ruff against Dallas. Thompson moves away from center in this configuration, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Sabres manage against Utah.

Despite all the offensive and goaltending problems, Buffalo boasts one of the best defensive units in the game. They have great depth, great defensive playmaking, and physicality. Rasmus Dahlin remains one of the top defensemen in the NHL – one that put up 74 points last season – and leads a line with Mattias Samuelsson. This is an ideal pairing for any NHL squad; Samuelsson is one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league, complementing Dahlin’s playmaking and puck-moving playstyle perfectly. Owen Power, the #1 overall pick a few years back, is the anchor for the 2nd pairing. Olen Zellweger, his partner, bolsters Power’s best qualities, as both are quick, agile skaters, both possess good vision on the ice for better options for breakout passes, and both provide solid offensive threats. To that point, Power leads the team with 5 points, with 4 assists to his name so far.

In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (UPL) is not doing well, as mentioned above. The Sabres traded Devon Levi this offseason, weakening their backup position as well. There currently are question marks in net that weren’t there last season, which provides opportunity for the Mammoth that may not be there once the crease solidifies.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Lucky 7?
The Mammoth led a record breaking league best power play into their last game. After going 0 for 7, the Mammoth fell to first place with their power play. That’s actually mind blowing to me. Going 0 for 7 left the Mammoth with *only* a 40% power play efficiency.

Buffalo’s penalty kill currently sits at 63.6% effectiveness. The Mammoth’s PP unit was nearly that effective at scoring until Thursday.

Team Tusk needs to get themselves back up on the successful PP train that has served them so well through the first 4 games of the season. The trap, however, is that Boston’s PK unit was terrible going into the last game as well…

Sabre Rattling
I keep talking about goaltending, because that’s the weakest point for an otherwise dominant defense. The top 4 of Buffalo are, arguably, the strongest combined 2 lines in the league. It doesn’t mean much, though, when your goaltending gives up 4 goals on 18 shots. Just ask Sebastian Cossa and Karel Vejmelka what they though on Thursday.

Know what Utah does well? Shot volume. The Mammoth have, by far, the leagues highest total shot attempts, with 274. While Vegas has more total shots, Utah’s a close second, putting 122 pucks on net. The accuracy (and blocks against) is a little rough, but the scoring attempts are there in spades.

Dahlin-Samuelsson are shutdown guys, so expect them to try and stifle Utah’s top 2 lines. However, Powers and Zellweger – as great as they are offensively – are not shutdown players, and do allow a lot of volume against. Utah needs to exploit that pairing, as well as their bottom 2, to get volume against UPL.

*Updated, as I just got news that likely starter is Colten Ellis. Ellis is small for a goaltender, at just over 6′, and is very susceptible to screens. Utah’s netfront presence lately can prove extra potent against a smaller goaltender, so watch for McBain, Hayton, and Lee to cause chaos in front – even with the Dahlin-Samuelsson pairing.

Wings or Tenders?
Goaltending last game was one of three areas that failed the Mammoth. Defense and offense were the other two.

Last game was a garbage game for both Cossa and Vejmelka, who both let in 3 goals apiece and struggled all night against a Boston team that could do nothing wrong when their team could do no right.

Tonight, Vejmelka is the expected starter. The big Czech needs to establish himself early. Buffalo actually is a top 5 team in high-danger chances, despite their lack of scoring. Vejmelka showed he can stop very dangerous chances against the New York Rangers a few nights ago, and likely will face a lot of mid-range slot shots tonight.

If Vejmelka can lock in and prevent the Buffalo offense from overly exploiting their HDCF, while also working to keep their power play off the board (or, at worst, only one against), the Mammoth should have the firepower to outscore anything Buffalo can do.

Projected Lineups:
We have our first mix of the year. Lawson Crouse takes Vincent Trocheck’s spot on the top line. Anders Lee moves to line 3. Kailer Yamamoto in for Michael Carcone. No changes in D pairings.

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
Vincent Trocheck — Logan Cooley — Dylan Guenther
Jack McBain — Barrett Hayton — Anders Lee
Kailer Yamamoto — Kevin Stenlund — Daniil But

Mikhail Sergachev — MacKenzie Weegar
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Dmitri Simashev — Andrew Peeke

Vejmelka
Cossa

Puck drop at 5PM on SEG+ and Utah16.

TUSKS UP!