^{Tonight could be the night, folks. There’s a playoff clinch scenario in the air!}

Hold on to your butts, folks, because we’ve got an official playoff clinch scenario potentially going to play out in the Delta Center tonight!

The Utah Mammoth square off against the Nashville Predators tonight in the biggest game in the young club’s history so far. The results of the game against Nashville have wide-ranging playoff potential, with several teams fates hanging in the balance based off the play of Team Tusk.

Here is the clinch scenario tonight: The Mammoth will clinch a spot if they defeat the Predators in regulation and the Anaheim Ducks beat the San Jose Sharks. We also inch close to the WC1 clinch, as a win would put us 6 points over Nashville with just 4 games to play (3 for Nashville).

If our clinch scenario plays out, and the Ducks beat the Sharks, Edmonton also will clinch a spot.

We are not in “win and you’re in” territory, but a win sure puts us on the cusp pending the outcome of one other game, and solidifies our hold on WC1 with a bit of room for error. A loss, however, isn’t quite the end of the world, but also isn’t ideal. A loss to the Predators shuts the door on Seattle’s season. It also would put Utah in just a 2 point lead over Nashville.

With winnable games on Nashville’s schedule (a reeling Ducks team, a Sharks team that may be eliminated by then, and a Wild team already clinched) and a back to back for Utah that includes the Carolina Hurricanes and travel, a 2 point lead is a little too close for comfort for my taste.

The Good (For Utah):
Utah is currently 3-0-0 in April, for a perfect 6 points out of 6 up for grabs. The Mammoth have certainly stepped up big time, especially with the log jam of teams behind them having games against each other. With teams guaranteed to get 2 points, Utah’s kept everyone at arm’s length, while making that WC2 spot even more competitive.

The Mammoth have put up 19 goals in those three games, leading the NHL in goals per game (6.33) in that small sample size. A power play of more than 40%(!) in that span has delivered a top-5 in the NHL performance, scoring 5 goals in 12 attempts.

Utah’s struggling penalty kill also has seemed to turn a bit of a corner as well. A short-handed goal against Edmonton helped get Utah back in the game, and they were net-neutral (1 PPGA, 1SHGF) against the league’s best unit.

The Bad (For Utah):
Karel Vejmelka has played all three games in April so far, and while he has a 3-0-0 record, he has given up close to 4 goals a game. That puts him at 36th (of 60) of any goaltender with a game this month. With a save percentage of just .855, he ranks 40th.

Vejmelka has also been under siege; the 3 games have seen him face 76 shots, 6th worse in the league in a 3 game span. Only Tolopilo has faced more shots with a worse save percentage, and that includes the 6 that Utah hung on the hapless Vancouver Canucks in that game a week ago.

The Mammoth defense has been tough to watch in front of Vejmelka, though, as they’ve given up a number of high-danger chances to multiple teams in a row now. The Canucks don’t have the firepower to capitalize against the Mammoth, but Edmonton does – and we saw how that can burn Utah. While the Mammoth defense as a whole has continued to be a shot-suppressing unit (just over 25 per game), Nashville shoots a lot. That could be difficult for a team who suddenly forgot to clear the slot.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Specialness The Predators are dominating special teams in April on both sides of the ice.

Utah hasn’t given up a shorthanded goal in April, but they did to close out March against the Capitals in a 7-4 loss. Concerningly, before the Olympic break, Utah was one of a few teams to give up no SHGs. Since the return, Utah has 3 shorties against. That’s tied for 5th worst. Nashville? 2nd best in shorthanded goals for.

Nashville is 12 for 12 penalty kill in April. They’ve gotten 2 shorthanded goals as well, for an effective +2 while down a man. Since the Olympic break, the Predators lead the NHL in penalty kills (87.7%) and the 4 short-handed goals gives them a net PK of just shy of 94%. That’s absolutely insane.

Nashville also has been nearly as strong as Utah on the power play recently, scoring 4 goals in 13 cracks over their 4 games in April. Since the break? “Just” 26%, 5the best in the league.

To win tonight, Utah needs to limit their penalties. Period.

Tall task for Utah, though. They are the 5th most penalized team in the NHL per game in April, and 7th most since the Olympic break. The only saving grace is that Nashville takes more penalties, on average, against Utah, and even then they’re still dangerous. Best to keep them 5v5.

Vitamin G Karel Vejmelka has been struggling the past week and a half. His “Wins above replacement” stat over the past 10 games has been -.55, meaning an average goaltending performance over the last 10 games would have generated half a win more than Vejmelka. That’s not the worst stat in the league, but he hasn’t been stealing games. He’s given up 4+ goals on 3 of his last 5 starts, though he did technically shut out Washington in relief of Vitek Vanecek (1 save, 1 shot in 8 minutes of play time).

Vejmelka has about 2 weeks to figure out his game. He likely doesn’t need to steal Utah any wins over the next few games, but it’s a different beast under hot playoffs lights.

Vejmelka has a career high in starts already with 60, and tonight’s 61 will be 3 more than the next most worked goaltender…. Juuse Saros on the other side of the ice. A guaranteed spot might guarantee him a little extra rest for the playoffs, which never can hurt.

Tonight’s game is a playoff game, with big implications. Stealing a game tonight would be a massive boost to his playoff confidence, but an average goaltending game – maybe a little above average – would certainly put my concerns to rest a little.

Who Else But Forsberg? What do Macklin Celebrini, Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid have in common? All are 40+ goal scorers and have more than 100 points. What else do they have in common? Filip Forsberg has at least as many – if not way more – goals than all of them since the Olympic break. If the Mammoth are to have any

Forsberg? Nearly league leader in goals? What gives?

Forsberg has always been a solid player, and even in a terrible year last year he put up 30+ goals. This year, he’s knocking on the door of 40 – a milestone he’s hit twice before. The 31 year old has hit 30+ goals in each of his last 3 years, and 4 of his past 5. He only missed in 2022 because of injury. He had 19 goals in 50 games, a roughly 32 goal pace.

While he may not be the flashiest name on the Predators, he’s the most consistent and low-key dangerous. Steven Stamkos rightfully gets the attention, but since 2020-2021 when Stamkos led the Lightning to the second Stanley Cup and first in a full season, Forsberg has scored a total of 9 fewer goals, while dealing with injuries. Let that sink in – a superstar in Stamkos has been outscored per game by Forsberg on a team that failed to make the playoffs three times in that span.

Forsberg has 1 goal and 1 assist against the Mammoth in the 2 games they played this year so far. Stamkos has 2G, 1A in that same span. The superstar is always going to be your main focus, but taking your eyes off Forsberg is a recipe for disaster. He needs to be shadowed, heavily, by what we hope is a stingy Utah defense.

Projected Lineups:
As usual, Andre Tourigny said there will be some game-time lineup decisions. We’ll see but the lines seem to be:

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
Kailer Yamamoto — Logan Cooley — Dylan Guenther
JJ Peterka — Alexander Kerfoot — Michael Carcone
Liam O’Brien — Kevin Stenlund — Brandon Tanev

Mikhail Sergachev — MacKenzie Weegar
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Sean Durzi

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

7PM local time. Game available on Utah 16 and SEG+ and in person at the Delta Center.

TUSKS UP!