^{In a potential preview of a playoff matchup, Utah looks to set the tone against a depleted Oilers team}

The Edmonton Oilers are back in the Delta Center tonight. Just about 2 weeks prior, they defeated the Mammoth 5-2 at home, and have now put up 11 goals on Team Tusk in just two games. Tonight is the last regular season affair between the clubs – but the way the Pacific Division is shaking out, there may be a lot more blue and orange to see in the Delta Center in a few weeks.

The Oilers have already won the season series against Utah, and are still playing relevant games, just like Utah. The Oilers aren’t angling for a wildcard spot, though, as they’re looking to take control of the top spot in the Pacific Division. The tallest midget from the Pacific will take on the 1st wildcard position, currently in control by the Utah Mammoth.

The way the Pacific has been this year, the clubs have similar points. The Oilers, with 87 sit in first and the Mammoth, with 86, sit in WC1. Utah has no path to a higher seed, as the buzzsaw of the Central Division has 3 teams with 100+ points, including the likely President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche.

What’s at stake?
For Edmonton? A lot, actually. Edmonton remains tied with the Anaheim Ducks with 87 points atop the Pacific Division. They control the tie-breaker (regulation wins), so they just need to keep pace with the Ducks to clinch the top seed. The playoffs aren’t a lock just yet, though. With Vegas just a point away from going 3rd to 1st, and the Kings just 4 points away from not just a wildcard spot, but a division spot, the Pacific’s race is very interesting – if not embarrassingly bad.

For Utah? Maintaining their grip on the WC1 spot. The Los Angeles Kings overtimed their way to 2 points against the Nashville Predators yesterday, which moved them up to WC2, and just 3 points behind the Mammoth. A win tonight by Utah sets them up perfectly, though. With the Vegas Golden Knights also sitting with 86 points (like Utah), technically Utah just needs to perform as good, or better, than the 3rd slot in the Pacific. A win tonight re-establishes a 5 point lead with just 5 games to play, and everyone (except San Jose) will have the same number of games left. That should leave no surprises and pave a very clear path forward.

Also pride. Utah has yet to beat the Edmonton McDavids, and need to change that tonight. Utah also can shape their potential matchup tonight; a win against the Oilers makes it easier for the Knights or Ducks to leapfrog them and take the potential 1st round matchup. A loss solidifies Edmonton’s hold, and – for a team that hasn’t beaten them yet – very likely gives Utah a scary first round opponent.

What to expect?
I was unavailable for the write-up last time against Edmonton, but ultimately tonight is the same as the game a couple of weeks prior. Edmonton lives and dies by their offense, spearheaded by Connor McDavid. McDavid is at the top of the point total in the NHL. Again. McDavid is in the top 3 goal scorers in the NHL. Again.

A lot of ink has been spilled about McDavid, so I’ll leave it to people who have been writing and fawning over him for years to give you his fancy stats. Bottom line – he’s quite alright as a hockey player.

Leon Draisaitl hasn’t played in nearly a month, and talk of his first round return may be premature. A massive blow to the Oilers organization, the best pure sniper in the NHL (in my opinion) was the perfect complement to McDavid on the power play, or in late games when they shifted the superstars together.

I’ll hold the L when I said that I expected a major slide with Draisaitl went down. The Oilers scoring has definitely been impacted with his absence – scoring “just” 3 goals a game, down from 3.5 goals for. Their power play effectiveness has cratered (down from 32% through March 15th to just 9.5% since) and have scored just 2 goals in 21 opportunities. Worse for Edmonton, they’ve given up 2 shorthanded goals as well. Effectively, they’ve scored net 0 goals with a man advantage in 21 tries. For the Oilers, that’s critically bad.

Without Draisaitl, the Oilers’ second line was overperforming. Zach Hyman led the line, along with Jack Roslovic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. However, Hyman’s hurt, and his 3 goals and 3 assists in the past 8 games will be missing. Kasperi Kapanen is expected to be on the 2nd line in his place, but Kapanen has struggled on both sides of the ice recently. Last game, a 5-1 loss against the Knights, there was a lot of shifting of Roslovic, RNH, and Kapanen wasn’t on that line. We’ll see how the adjustment tonight affects that line, or if a blender is in effect after a period or two.

The Oilers are still 6-3-0 in the 9 games with the rest of the squad, though. They’re doing this on – and I can’t believe I’m saying this about the Oilers – good defense and goaltending. Old pal Connor Ingram has been a fantastic pickup for Edmonton – a capable backup turned quasi-starter. He’s played in 7 of the 9 games, with a sub 3.00 GAA, a shutout, and a nearly .900 save percentage. Tristan Jarry, who was acquired earlier in the season, has only played 2 games, but has given up a total of 3 goals in them, while rocking an impressive .917.

Defensively, the Oilers have held teams to about a half shot per game down over this span. Darnell Nurse, after an atrocious 2025-2026 season so far, has suddenly remembered how to defend. Edmonton’s 2nd defensive pair, Nurse coupled with Connor Murphy – has not been the black hole defensively it has been most of the year. Murphy has been generally solid most of the year, but Nurse has really overperformed with Murphy the past few games. His -19 goal differential (where he was on the ice for more than 1 goal per game at 5v5) has flipped to a positive in 9 games. They’ve actually been on the ice more than the top line with Evan Bouchard.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Virginity The Oilers have been extremely good as Hyman stepped up massively in Draisaitl’s absence. His absence last game left the 2nd and 3rd lines looking lost. The Oilers without Hyman lose the benefit of that solid line 2; a line that scored more than they gave up. Roslovic and Nugent-Hopkins were both positive goal differentials on 5v5. Through March 15th, they were a combined -13. Their line was also responsible for a nearly .5PPG increase in their scoring for.

The Hyman absence will be huge, and the Mammoth will need to exploit the sudden weakness. Kapanen has not played nearly as solid as Hyman, though he is a danger to score. His 1 goal in 9 games, however, denotes a struggle he hasn’t had all year.

With a weakened 2nd line, Utah can – and should – focus nearly exclusively on the top line to do their best to shut down McDavid (and linemates Matthew Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin) as much as humanly possible.

Lil’ Jon I can speak from experience as an Islanders fan that Tristan Jarry can either be great, or be a tire fire. Since January 1st, he’s been smelling like burned rubber, with just a .855 save percentage and nearly a 4 goals against average. That’s worse than backup numbers, which is why despite the trade to move Skinner, Jarry’s been playing backup minutes.

Utah seems to be terrible against backups, though. Against Jarry last game, Utah managed a total of 18 shots. 2 goals, mind you, but just 18 shots. The Oilers also limited Chicago to 18 shots against Jarry a week ago. That’s a far cry from the shelling he took in Dallas nearly a month ago, where he gave up 7 goals and didn’t even stop three quarters of all shots against.

Edmonton’s strategy on Tristan Jarry is simple. Teams can’t score against Jarry if they can’t shoot against him. So, Utah’s strategy should be simple. They can’t score against Jarry unless they throw a lot of shots on him from a lot of areas. 18 shots won’t cut it, they need to push 30 tonight.

Mind Games The Mammoth have been dealing with some major changes lately. The injury bug has bitten hard, and staple Jack McBain is out of the lineup for a while. MacKenzie Weegar was also out last game, causing a bit of disarray in the back end. Weegar looks to be back in tonight, but Alexander Kerfoot will resume centering duties in McBain’s absence. The 4th line should be the same as last game.

With that said, Team Tusk actually played with a lot of poise and intelligence the past few games. Despite being down in several starts, they’ve rallied to win critically important games. They seem calm, cool, and collected.

Is the team maturing? Are they playing to the gravity of their situation? Is veteran presence starting to rub off across all 4 lines? Perhaps.

The important thing, though, is that the calmness needs to be pervasive tonight. Edmonton’s going to score. They probably will score a decent amount. That’s what the Oilers do. The Mammoth have tended to panic in games with high-scoring opponents, as evidenced by the previous two games against the Oilers.

Karel Vejmelka, tonight’s assumed starter, has had some non-ideal games. He needs to be able to mentally shake off the inevitable goal or two that’ll come his way.

A defensive pairing of Ian Cole and Sean Durzi needs to remember that they’re defense, and Durzi needs to not make any stupid mistakes – and if he does, he needs to immediately learn from them.

Logan Cooley is on a bit of a hot streak. However, he’s tried to force play against fast teams like Edmonton, leading to turnovers and lost offensive zone opportunities. Playing from behind against Edmonton isn’t a recipe for disaster, though, and Cooley just needs to stick with a calm demeanor – not trying to skate through 4 Edmonton players just to turnover the puck.

The Oilers are vulnerable, and a deficit is not a death sentence. Scrambling to match what the Oilers bring isn’t the best way to beat them. Playing a Utah Mammoth game, at a Utah Mammoth pace, the Utah Mammoth way, should give Team Tusk the best chance to win.

Projected Lineups:
Looks like no changes ahead for the forward group, minus McBain. Weegar slots back in after his absence last game.

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
Kailer Yamamoto — Logan Cooley — Dylan Guenther
JJ Peterka — Alexander Kerfoot — Michael Carcone
Liam O’Brien — Kevin Stenlund — Brandon Tanev

Mikhail Sergachev — MacKenzie Weegar
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Sean Durzi

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Game start 7:30 PM at the Delta Center or ESPN. Yuck, limited post-game write-up because of the lack of replay.

TUSKS UP!