^{A back to back is on the menu, as Utah returns to face the Anaheim Ducks}

In what would have been a great first period to watch yesterday, the Mammoth jumped out to a 3 goal lead en route to beating the Vegas Golden Knights 4-0. Karel Vejmelka was outstanding, stopping all 28 shots he faced, including 2 late power plays and a late push by Vegas to at least break his shutout bid. Clayton Keller saw my post calling him out, and he took that personally. Keller scored twice to allow Utah the ability to control the game early.

Tonight, Utah faces yet another top level Pacific division opponent in the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks make their first, and only, appearance at the Delta Center. The season series is split, with each team winning once. The Mammoth got an additional point in the first game, falling 3-2 in overtime before blowing out the Ducks 7-0 just two weeks later.

Currently, both teams have the same number of points – putting Utah in a tie for 1st in the Pacific, were we aligned there – though Anaheim has one fewer game played. As with the Golden Knights yesterday, this is a game where both teams have a lot to lose, though the Mammoth win yesterday gave them a little breathing room in the wildcard race.

Utah put 6 points distance between themselves and the WC2 spot. However, the San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators, and Seattle Kraken are all within striking distance, all less than 8 points back. All these teams have at least a game in hand over Utah, so every point for the Mammoth will be important through the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the Ducks currently occupy first place, but only by a hair. Currently, they are just 1 point against the Edmonton Oilers and 2 points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights. Utah’s victory over the Knights yesterday helped Anaheim, though tonight the Mammoth are looking to be less charitable to the Ducks. The Ducks currently have the least played of the three teams, giving them an inherent advantage over their competition. However, Anaheim has the easiest schedule remaining in the Pacific, the Oilers just lost their golden goose with Leon Draisaitl’s regular season ending injury, and a comfortable 6 point lead over 4th place.

Anaheim is rested and desperately fighting for a playoff spot. Utah is on the second half of a back to back, after dealing with a hard hitting Vegas team that – while obviously beaten, still wanted to exact a pound of flesh on every shift. This won’t be an easy game for Utah. What can they expect?

Migrating to the top of the division:
The Anaheim Ducks have been in a rebuild phase for quite some time. By “some time” I mean they’ve been 6th or worse in the Pacific division since 2018. A long rebuild has finally come to fruition for them this year though, as a number of their top picks have started coming into their own.

Cutter Gauthier, while not their original draft pick, was traded to Anaheim in 2024. A top 5 pick in his class, Gauthier forced a trade from Philadelphia. Since joining the Ducks, he’s had two great seasons – his first full campaign saw him hit the 20 goal mark, ending the season with 44 points. This year, however, has been his breakout season – 35 goals and 61 points so far lead the Ducks. He’s Mr. Clutch for them, as his 7 game winning goals eclipses even Dylan Guenther’s for Utah. Gauthier is dangerous on the power play (9g) and performs well at even strength. Consider Gauthier the #1 threat in all situations for Anaheim.

Leo Carlsson is having a breakout season for the Ducks as well, thriving on a line with veterans Chris Kreider and Troy Terry. Carlsson’s hit career highs in each category this year – 24 goals, 32 assists, and nearly 20 minutes a game – as he’s been clearly trusted to lead the Ducks top line. The trio of Carlsson, Kreider, and Terry account for 59 goals and 147 total points, and take the top power play spot. While Gauthier is the most individually dangerous player on the ice, the top line will be critical for Utah’s defensemen to key in on.

At the bottom of the lineup, Anaheim has a significant weakness. Mason McTavish, the #3 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft has regressed from his career highs all set last year. His 43 point pace over a season would be on par with his rookie campaign. He has been suffering from a “brutal” injury recently, however tonight marks his first game back. Expect his play to be rusty. Winger Tim Washe is in his rookie season, playing just about 1/3rd of the season with underwhelming results and Jansen Harkens hasn’t performed well as a stopgap signing. With the benefit of last change, being the home team, any situation that catches that 4th line against either of Utah’s 2 top lines could be a great opportunity for the for the Mammoth to exploit heavily.

Former Ranger, Kreider isn’t running goalies, he’s helping that top line rack up points. Another former Ranger, Jacob Trouba, is causing trouble on the blue line. Veteran agitator, Trouba has turned around his play both offensively and defensively this year. He’s helped anchor Jackson LaCombe, allowing the third year defenseman the ability to become a much better two-way player.

Anaheim is physical; Troubla’s second on the team in hits, and while his hits can be borderline, at least he’s not taking people out at the knees. To that end, Radko Gudas will be out for a few more games, so Logan Cooley’s knee thanks the Department of Player Safety. Additionally, one of the top hitters in the league, Ross Johnston, is out. This bodes well for a tired Utah team that won’t have to worry about a ton of added physicality from a number of lines.

Where Anaheim is weakest is between the pipes. The Mammoth were fortunate enough to get the one professional game of Vyacheslav Buteyets, chasing him back to the minors. The Mammoth also have faced off against Lukas Dostal and Ville Husso, lighting up the latter in that 7-0 victory. The one successful goaltender against Utah, Dostal, should get the nod tonight.

Since the Olympic break, Dostal has been… bad. Yes, he’s won 6 of 9 games – but he’s done this despite giving up a brutal 3.59 goals against and just an .866 save percentage. Dostal has given up the most goals in the league since everyone returned (33). Only a handful of goalies have a worse save percentage, as Dostal has been absolutely bombarded with shots (244) making him one of the most overworked goalies post-break.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Postal on Dostal Goaltending is the weak link for the Ducks franchise, and Dostal leads, or trails?, that charge. I mentioned his stats above, but Dostal’s given up 3 or more goals in 5 of his last 6 starts. A week ago, Dostal gave up 5 goals to a depleted Toronto team, which I guess was motivated after something happened to someone that no one really talked about for a week.

Dostal’s one good game was against Winnipeg, where he gave up 1 goal. He did this on just 13 shots for the game. That was the only game in his previous 15 that the Ducks didn’t allow 25+ shots.

A Ducks team that allows a high volume of shots with a goaltender showing mid-level save percentages is a recipe for success. After lighting up Aiden Hill for 3 goals on 3 shots yesterday, if Utah can keep their legs, expect them to give Dostal fits all night.

Box Cutter Cutter Gauthier is a jewel in the crown of the Anaheim rebuild, and they basically got him for nothing from the Flyers. 35 goals in just his second full season? That’s great for him, but a potential nightmare for Utah.

Gauthier has a lightning fast release, which makes it difficult for goalies to track. To do so, the Mammoth will be relying on Vitek Vanecek. Vanecek’s been great for Utah lately, getting Team Tusk a point in each of his last 5 outings (3-0-2), including one shutout. Posting a .913 save percentage and just a 2.38 goals against, Vanecek will need to stand tall to keep a high scoring Ducks offense on the ground.

Gauthier has a lightning fast release, which makes it difficult for goalies to track. To do so, the Mammoth will be relying on Vitek Vanecek. Vanecek’s been great for Utah lately, getting Team Tusk a point in each of his last 5 outings (3-0-2), including one shutout. Posting a .913 save percentage and just a 2.38 goals against, Vanecek will need to stand tall to keep a high scoring Ducks offense on the ground.

Time to D-liver The Mammoth defense has been good lately, shutting down the Vegas Knights yesterday. However, the score doesn’t relay the fact that the Mammoth defense gave up a number of prime chances to the Knights. Pucks in the crease, multiple posts, and sloppy play gave the Knights multiple chances to get back in the game. Defense needs to step up big time, and there’s one major point that needs to be addressed.

Sean Durzi is struggling defensively. Struggling is a kind word to use here. Durzi had one of the worst games of any defenseman in the league against Minnesota just a week ago. Durzi has been getting 5 minutes fewer per game since that terrible game. Showcasing the defensive struggles Durzi’s had, his new partner, Ian Cole was +19 before the pairing with Durzi, and -2 with him. If you don’t like plus/minus as a stat, you’ll be even more disappointed to know that Durzi has negative goals for differential. That stat means that the chance your team scores with you on the ice; 50% is the default. More than 50% and you’re a net positive on the ice. Durzi sits at 26.7%; teams are almost THREE TIMES as likely to score against Utah with Durzi on the ice than Utah is to score with him there.

Durzi was never meant to be a defensive defenseman though. Offensively, he’s been mediocre. With just 22 points, he’s solidly in third for points generated by Utah defensemen. John Marino, a defensive minded two-way player, has 9 more points than Durzi (admittedly in more games). However, point per game, Durzi and Marino are tied. Marino, though, has a positive goal differential (64.5%) meaning Utah is about 50% more likely than the opponents to score if Marino is on the ice than if he’s not.

Durzi doesn’t necessarily need to score tonight to give Utah the best chance of winning, though that would help significantly. He just needs to keep the highest flying Ducks from getting their beaks wet.

Projected Lineup:
Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Logan Cooley — Dylan Guenther
Jack McBain — Barrett Hayton — Michael Carcone
Alexander Kerfoot — Kevin Stenlund — Kailer Yamamoto

MacKenzie Weegar — Mikhail Sergachev
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Sean Durzi

Vitek Vanecek
Karel Vejmelka

Game start 8PM local at the Delta Center, on Utah16, and on SEG+

TUSKS UP!