^{If we were in the Pacific, this would be a battle for a home ice slot…}

Editors note: I will most likely be unable to watch the game live, relying on the radio for coverage tonight, so limited or no recap after the game. Sorry!

The Mammoth return to play, a bit closer to home, as they take on the Vegas Golden Knights down in Sin City. This is the third, and final, meeting of these two teams. The season series is split, with each team winning at home. Tonight’s the tie-breaker.

Currently, both teams are tied with 76 points. This puts the Mammoth in the first wildcard slot, but the Golden Knights are 3rd in the Pacific. While their shared point total isn’t currently an issue, should any Pacific team make a run, they’ll challenge both Vegas and Utah and, depending on a number of tie-breaker scenarios, could cause chaos in the playoff picture.

However, that’s in the future. What’s in the now?

To the Mammoth, this win could put them up 7 points on the wild card teams, if both Seattle and LA lose tonight. A loss could put them in a precarious spot, with both teams having a game in hand, and San Jose not far behind, with even more games in hand.

For the Knights, a win puts them in 2nd place in the Pacific. With the Edmonton Oilers reeling from a Leon Draisaitl regular-season ending injury, they are eyeing that second spot, and a home ice advantage through the first round of the playoffs. They already have a game in hand over Edmonton, and a win can help push Edmonton on the long, slippery slope to not just third place, but potentially down to the wildcard.. or even out of the race.

A loss, however, also tightens their race, as they the exact same negative situation as the Mammoth. A loss puts pressure on them from 3 division rivals – the Kings, San Jose Sharks, and the Kraken.

Of note, the Knights have been OT merchants this year. With 14 OTL’s giving them 14 extra points in the standings, they rank third most in the “loser point” category.

Both teams have a lot to gain and a lot to lose. So, what should we expect?

Is Vegas’ luck running out?
The Vegas Golden Knights have been the most successful franchise launch in NHL history. With successful seasons each year since their inauguration, they’ve found themselves the beneficiary of a lot of luck… and some good old fashioned NHL home cooking. At the top of the division for a good portion of the season, it appeared that once again, Vegas was going to be a dominant force – at least in the Pacific.

However, the tides of fortune have seemed to turn for the Knights lately. Since January 1st, the normally strong Knights team has been average, sitting tied for 16th in points earned. Matters worsened for them, though, since the Olympic break. Since returning, the Knights have posted just 8 points and a .364 points percentage. The only team worse? The tire fire up north, with the Toronto Maple Leafs getting 7 points for under .300 points percentage.

It’s not like Vegas has been getting blown out during this stretch, though. They’ve closed out games strong – win or lose – scoring more than half of their total goals for (29) in the third period (15) or overtime (1). They do have a rough first 40 though, being outscored 24-13 over 11 games.

The Knights have been decent on 5v5 – scoring a much higher percentage of their goals at full strength than Utah during this stretch. However, they are porous as well, with a full 75% of their goals against coming at 5v5. Their power play is good, at 23%, and penalty kill has been extremely strong, with 87.5% kill, so special teams has definitely helped the Knights more than it’s hurt them.

The Knights have been stricken by the injury bug a lot this year, and currently a number of players are out for the team. Goaltender Carter Hart was brought in to help shore up the crease, but is out and won’t be a factor against Utah. William Karlsson, a significant factor in Vegas’ success the past few years, remains out. Alex Pietrangelo? Gone for the season. Mark Stone just recently returned to action this week, and likely still isn’t 100%.

While the Golden Knights deal with serious injuries up and down the lineup, they are not missing a scoring touch. Since January 1st, Vegas has tallied more than 100 goals – 7th best in the league. Utah scores nearly the same clip, but has 2 fewer games, and is just 5 shy of the century mark. The Olympics cooled them off a bit, dropping their 3.4 goals a game down to 2.6, but they still remain dangerous offensively.

The aforementioned Mark Stone was a top 5 point per game producer before he got injured the first time, but still is a 1.35/ppg player. He’s slowly returning to form this week, but still remains a prime threat to spark the Vegas offense. Centering Ivan Barbashev and Jack Eichel he’s got weapons on the top line – weapons he knows how to use effectively, as shown by his 41 assists in just 46 games.

Mitch Marner, the Toronto Maple Leafs superstar, helped shore up the Vegas second line, in large part fueling the emergence of Pavel Dorofeyev. Dorofeyev has already surpassed his career high in points, and is 1 goal shy of another high. He’s been lethal on the Vegas power play, scoring 18 of his 34 goals with the man advantage. In addition, his increased playing time on the line with Tomas Hertl and Marner has been paying big dividends for Vegas. Dorofeyev and Marner have been the driving force of the Knight’s offense since the break; the duo is responsible for 11 of the 29 goals the team has scored since Marner got his runner up medal.

Rounding out threats, one can’t discount Jack Eichel. Eichel’s been less productive than his normal self the last 10 games, but that doesn’t mean he can’t turn it on at a moment’s notice. I called him out in the first game against Vegas… and he turned a terrible stretch into a romp against Utah. He’s been having a bad stretch again, so Utah better not forget him in the mix.

On the blue line, Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb as a pair have been one of the few defensive bright spots for Vegas. Offensively, the tandem has provided a spark for the Knights – 6 points between them in their past 10. Rasmus Andersson and Jeremy Lauzon, however, have been difficult positions for Vegas’ other pairings. They have been struggling a bit each, causing some disruptions in the Knights back-end, and a reason why Vegas’ goals against have been rough the past few weeks.

Akira Schmidt, who played Utah in the first meeting, and who gave up just one goal against, not playing tonight. Aiden Hill looks to be the starter today. Hill has struggled since the beginning of the year. Returning mid-January from injury, Hill’s only played 15 games, owing to the Olympics break, but he’s gone just 7-7-1 in that span. He’s been giving up 3 goals a game, with just under an .875 save percentage.

However, Hill has played well in his last five starts. He’s posted a GAA of 1.62 in that span, recording a save percentage of .924. So, Utah could be facing a hot hand in Hill, and while that’s a tongue twister, it also could be a frustrating mess for the Mammoth forwards.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Jack Eichel was a force the first meeting against Utah. He was struggling, then broke out with 2 goals and 1 assist. The Mammoth were the team that broke his struggles, and he performed VERY well after that game. 11g, 30a for 41 points well, heading into the Olympic break.

With Stone’s return, he’s got one of the most critical pieces to his game back. Ivan Barbashev on the line is no slouch, either. A quiet Eichel can be a dangerous one, and like I said in the previous two recaps, Eichel can be their ace in the hole. He needs to be watched closely. There’s a reason he’s top of the Knights point totals and top 10 overall point producer.

Just because Eichel has had a slower patch – 3g, 3a in his past 10 games, doesn’t mean he can’t be a Mammoth killer again tonight.

Charged Up? Utah’s power play has been actually good since the break. Going 7 for 27 (25.9%), Utah ranks in the top 10 for goals scored and power play percent! While they did give up their first shorthanded goal of the year with a man up, special teams has offensively been good.

However, Vegas has been better than good on the penalty kill. Top 4 in goals allowed, with just 4, their penalty kill (87.5%) has also scored shorthanded.

Vegas and Utah are two of the more penalized teams in the league lately, with Utah forced to kill off 34 penalties in this stretch – 2 more than even a borderline physical team like Vegas. The Mammoth penalty kill has been less than good, though, as they’ve given up more than double the goals that Vegas has (9) and post a paltry 73.5% success rate.

That’s been a massive struggle for the Mammoth, who are the 6th most penalized team in the league – and 26th in the league at getting calls for themselves.

Even with Vegas’ middle of the pack power play, the clear advantage to special teams goes against Utah for their PK struggles lately. While it’s not groundbreaking to say that more power plays for your team is better than the alternative, it’s clear that while it would be better to get a power play or two in their favor, it would be in Utah’s best interest to prevent penalties at all cost.

Climb That Hill The recent play of Aiden Hill is a bit concerning, especially since goalies are voodoo. Any goalie at any time can be a Vezina winner for a game. Utah’s found this out several times this year already, making backups with historically bad numbers get shutouts and wins.

Hill is playing well, but has struggled on and off over the course of the year. Hill can get rattled. He gave up 5 goals against Toronto early in the year, which led to a 6 game stretch where he struggled, including giving up an abysmal 7 goals against Ottawa.

In his last 3, though, he’s posted a .900+ percentage in each game, with a shutout and a 1GAA.

Getting to Hill in the first period will be a critical opportunity to knock his confidence around. With Vegas a slow starter – and strong finisher in the 3rd period – it’s important to take control of the game before halfway through the second period, and Hill playing his 6th straight game could be the tipping point in a season where he’s only played a third of the time.

Look for the kid line to give Utah the best chances early, because if Utah can’t jump out to a strong lead, it’s going to be a long night for Team Tusk.

Honorable mention:
The top line needs to contribute today. While I haven’t called out the captain for his play lately, it’s been sub-par to say the least. I expect the kid line to perform, because their metrics have been great, but Schmaltz and Keller need to figure out their issues with decision making ASAP.

Projected Lineup:
If Kevin Stenlund is back in, which is a gametime decision, we should have:

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Logan Cooley — Dylan Guenther
Jack McBain — Barrett Hayton — Michael Carcone
Alexander Kerfoot — Kevin Stenlund — Kailer Yamamoto

If Stenlund is out, expect Tanev at wing, Kerfoot at center again

MacKenzie Weegar — Mikhail Sergachev
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Sean Durzi

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Game start 8PM local on ESPN. Boo.

TUSKS UP!