^{Detroit makes their first, and only, visit to the Delta Center tonight}

The Detroit Red Wings, one of the hottest teams in the East, make their way to face the Mammoth in the last game before the Olympics winter break. With three weeks looming on the horizon, the games could go one of two ways today – either everyone’s already mentally golfing down in Hawaii, or they’re going to leave it all on the line knowing they’ll be able to golf down in Hawaii in 3 days as winners.

Thankfully, the Red Wings are coming in a bit tired after a very hard weekend home and home with Colorado. Trading shutouts, the Red Wings actually beat Colorado in Ball Arena, 2-0 on Monday. No small feat, playing the best team in the league twice in three days likely took a toll on the second best team in the Atlantic, and third best in the East, so hopefully Utah can strike while the opportunity presents itself.

What’s making the Red Wings soar?
The Red Wings have been masters of the one-goal game this year, which is apparent in the fact that 10 of their 33 wins came after 60 minutes. Coupled with 6 losses in overtime, nearly 30% of all their games have come with bonus time included (16 of 57). Utah, meanwhile, has only had 11 contests go to an extra frame, and none to shootouts.

Detroit has the second lowest goal differential of all non-wildcard playoff teams, at just +5. The only other divisional team with a worse differential is Anaheim in the west, at -10 (and Seattle, on their heels, is -5). 23 of their 33 wins have been by 2 goals or fewer… and 14 of their 18 regulation losses are by 3 or more.

For how tight Detroit wins their games, they’re not particularly defensive, as they average about 2.95 goals against per game. To compare, Utah allows 2.79 per game, a dozen less on the year as Detroit. Neither are they particularly good offensively, with 3 goals a game scored that ranks them below average in the NHL at 19th.

What Detroit excels at, however, is scoring first and clinging on to their lead. They’ve scored first in fewer than half their games, but if they do, they win nearly 4 of every 5 games they play. Only Colorado, Tampa, Dallas, and surprisingly Buffalo are better. Scoring against them first actually doesn’t help much, as they are also top 10 in the league at comeback wins.

Detroit is powered by a top line of Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and Marco Kasper, and it’s no surprise that Larkin and Raymond are third and first in points respectively. Larkin, a longtime staple on the Wings, has been remarkably consistent in his career, but has seen a nice defensive resurgence with Raymond – with the latter also putting up massive numbers. Raymond, coming off an 80 point year last year, has increased that performance already this year, and is on pace for 88 points – with a good chance to hit 90.

Lost in that top line mix, though, is Alex DeBrincat. DeBrincat is the motor that runs the power play unit, with 11 goals and 17 power play points on the year. That’s roughly half of Utah’s entire power play performance as a team. With 41 goals on the year, the Detroit power play is a top 10 unit, and DeBrincat’s contribution to special teams is a big reason why Detroit can keep it close.

The last notable mention I have is the play of Moritz Seider. Seider, now in his 4th year, is breaking out with 37 points (7g, 30a) for the year. More importantly, however, is his defensive play. Seider turned a campaign of -5 last year into an impressive +14 this. He’s been fantastic as a power play quarterback for Detroit this year as well – tying DeBrincat for second on the team with 17 points (16 assists).

Detroit’s goaltending tandem is about average. Starter John Gibson is 22-11-2 for the year, with a 2.6 GAA and a .905 save percentage. This is roughly comparable to Karel Vejmelka (2.61 GAA and .901 S%), so Detroit doesn’t have much of an edge on goaltending over Utah.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Gentlemen, Start Your Engines I spoke about how great Detroit is at keeping games close, but the flip on all of that – Detroit is also a top 5 team in losing by more than 2 goals. Detroit is the only solid playoff team, to lose more than a dozen games by more than 2 goals. Anaheim has a 13 goal blowout total, but Anaheim is likely not going to keep that spot anyway.

Long and short of Detroit – if they keep a game within 2 goals, they’re going to swarm you and get that game close. But, if you can manage three goals or more, they fold like a broken lawn chair.

Utah needs to step on the gas and get the first goal, to not put themselves at a significant disadvantage. Once they get that first goal, they need to quickly strike again – and doing so will usually give you a chance to win, but against Detroit doubly so.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Gentlemen, Start Your Engines I spoke about how great Detroit is at keeping games close, but the flip on all of that – Detroit is also a top 5 team in losing by more than 2 goals. Detroit is the only solid playoff team, to lose more than a dozen games by more than 2 goals. Anaheim has a 13 goal blowout total, but Anaheim is likely not going to keep that spot anyway.

Long and short of Detroit – if they keep a game within 2 goals, they’re going to swarm you and get that game close. But, if you can manage three goals or more, they fold like a broken lawn chair.

Utah needs to step on the gas and get the first goal, to not put themselves at a significant disadvantage. Once they get that first goal, they need to quickly strike again – and doing so will usually give you a chance to win, but against Detroit doubly so.

ADHD The Mammoth have started their last two games with penalties in the first 2 minutes of the game. While Vancouver is not a team to worry about on the power play, Dallas was. Detroit, while not as potent as Dallas on the advantage, isn’t shabby. Given more than 2 chances tonight, it’s a safe bet the the Wings can light the lamp.

It’s imperative the team plays smarter than they have. Taking 4 penalties against Vancouver was unacceptable, even if one of them was late in the game after it was already in hand. Delay of game and too many men penalties are discipline and focus penalties.

Look, penalties will happen a game, especially ones that are subject to the ref’s whims. What may be roughing or holding one game will be just letting them play on another. However, some things just can’t be done – the “automatics” are fixable and, considering the state of the PK now versus November, need to be preventable. Mentally, this team needs to reign it in.

Gun Violence The one thing Detroit is known for is one thing Utah can bring to the ice tonight. No, we’re not showing up strapped, but we do need a Big Gun. Since returning from his injury, Dylan Guenther has struggled with his role on the third line. Of all non-4th liners, Guenther is tied for lowest point total. With just 1 assist, and posting a -2, it’s clear that Guenther probably rushed back and wasn’t 100% ready.

However, Gunner should be able to make some hay against Detroit in a third line role. Detroit’s third line is one of their weaker ones defensively, next to their bottom line, so a third line matchup should provide him ample space to score. While not nearly as “easy” a game as against Vancouver, Guenther has proven to be a pain for the Wings – with 4 goals and a +4 rating in 7 matchups.

The team relies on Guenther to perform, and today’s a good opportunity for him to get back on the positive side of things before a long break ahead.

Projected Lineups:
Looks like no changes ahead.

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Barrett Hayton — Kailer Yamamoto
Michael Carcone — Jack McBain — Dylan Guenther
Brandon Tanev — Kevin Stenlund — Liam O’Brien

Mikhail Sergachev — Sean Durzi
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Nick DeSimone

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Game start 7 PM at the Delta Center or Utah 16 / SEG plus

TUSKS UP!