^{The appropriately rated Lone Star team make their last regular seasons visit to the Delta Center}

After a successful enough road trip this past week, Utah returns home for their last games before the extended Olympics break. The penultimate meeting between the Dallas Stars and Utah Mammoth marks the first of a 6 game homestand tonight, though there will be a three week hiatus in the middle of that stretch.

Utah and Dallas recently faced off here at the Delta Center, just two weeks ago. In a playoff atmosphere, Utah took a 2-1 regulation win and a massive two points.

Tonight’s game is another critically important game to both the Mammoth and Stars. For Dallas, they are still clinging on to the second seed in the powerhouse Central Conference by percentage points – they currently sit behind the Minnesota Wild by one point with a game in hand. Any points tonight put them back in 2nd place on points total ahead of Minnesota. Dallas has also been having a bad month by their standards, with just a 6-6-2 record. Their 14 points in January ranks them in the bottom third in the league. D

Utah, meanwhile, sits 11 points behind Dallas, with the same number of games played. The Mammoth currently are in the top wildcard spot, though this is a tenuous position at best. Utah is one point above Anaheim and Los Angeles, however the Kings have a game in hand. The saving grace for Utah, though, is they have the tie-breaker on both teams in the form of regulation wins.

With that said, Utah needs both points tonight – first, to have any hope of making a run at taking a top three seed in the conference, and second (more likely) to put greater distance between themselves and the tight wildcard race developing behind them.

As they return to the Delta Center, the Mammoth have to channel the positive energy from their road trip. Winning a game against a division rival just a few points behind them was a massive boost to their wildcard chances. Outplaying the Tampa Bay Lightning – the best team in the league at that point – and only losing because of a Vezina goaltender was extremely encouraging… if not frustrating. Beating the Stanley Cup champions at home on the second game of a back to back was a huge sign of resiliency and a boost to Vitek Vanecek’s morale, and the team’s faith in him as a backup. And Carolina’s game was great too, because the TV stopped working with 5 minutes to go.

The Mammoth have a lot of positives to build on. What about Dallas?

What makes the Dallas Stars shine?
The Stars 6-6-2 record I mentioned earlier is a bit of a mirage, as they’ve been coming on strong lately. Since their loss in the Delta Center two weeks ago, Dallas has 4-2-0.
Riding a 3 game win streak has put some wind in their sails. They won the second half of a back to back at home against the Blues, then against the Blues on the road, and on Thursday down in Vegas. Momentum is definitely on their side.

Over their 6 games since last seeing Utah, they have seen significant improvement in their offensive output. Their two losses saw a shutout and a one goal game, but everything since has been a 3+ goal output. Their best outing, a 6-2 victory over Boston, and back to back 4 goal games have shown their scoring touch has returned.

Their offense has been significantly been boosted by their power play, which has gone 6 for 17 – a 35% success rate. This is up from their 29% average for the year through the last game against Utah. Fueled by 2 goals each from Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston, a dangerous power play getting more dangerous is a scary prospect for Utah to face – especially after failing against Carolina twice and against 6 on 5 play late in the game.

Offensively, Jason Robertson, the Stars goal leader, has been remarkably consistent for the year earning just about 1.2 points per game – even during their slide. Mikko Rantanen, points leader, has been quiet over the past stretch though, with only 2 assists in their past 6, so Dallas has been getting solid contributions everywhere.

Goaltending in Dallas has worked out well for them, with Olympian Jake Oettinger taking roughly 2/3rds of all starts. Last game, Oettinger gave up 2 goals to Utah, with a .909 save percentage. However, despite Oettinger’s strong play against Utah the Stars backup, Casey DeSmith, will be in net tonight.

DeSmith, for the year, has better numbers than Oettinger. Posting .3GAA lower and a .13% better save percentage, DeSmith is more than capable as a backup. Since January 1st, DeSmith’s numbers have even improved slightly, posting a .916% (+.04) and 2.23GAA (-.21). Dallas, though, has given DeSmith the Vanecek treatment – their offensive output for DeSmith starts has been low, leading to just a 1-2-1 record this month.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Local Group Returning to the Delta Center is probably a sight for sore eyes. After an extremely difficult road trip, facing 2 playoff teams that are likely going deep, plus the defending champs and a rival looking to steak their wildcard spot, Utah’s been effectively on a playoff stretch away from home for a full week.

Utah’s played well in front of their home fans in January, going 6-0-1 for 13 of a possible 14 points. Additionally, the Mammoth have been nearly doubling up opponents offensively – scoring 4 goals per game and giving up just 2.14.

Having an energized home crowd, one that knows the significance of tonight’s game, should help continue to fuel their home success.

Rocket Man The Mammoth have been dealing with a few massive injuries, including most recently their most clutch player. With Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther sidelined, Utah could easily find excuses and reasons to fold. However, Kailer Yamamoto has slid into Guenther’s spot – and previously Lawson Crouse’s – and provided 3 goals and 2 assists in the 4 games he’s played. His 3 goals, 5 points, and +5 rating leads the team. All those points have been even strength.

Oh, and Yamamoto has the lowest ice time per game of all forwards while doing this.

Shooting an astronomical 43% over that time, Yamamoto has been an offensive dynamo. Against Casey DeSmith, having a sharpshooter available with Guenther out of the lineup could make a significant difference in what promises to be another playoff-style game.

Kevlar vs. Shooting Stars Yamamoto isn’t the only one on the ice with a lethal shot. The Stars have a number of, well, stars who can hit twine consistently. Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson, and Mikko Rantanen all have been posting more than 16% shooting percentage in January. Rantanen in particular will be especially dangerous tonight. Looking at Utah as a potential slump-buster since he scored against us last time, Rantanen will likely throw a lot of shots at the net.

In net, Karel Vejmelka needs to be a Kevlar vest and stop these shots. He’s been super-human lately, with 9 wins in his past 12 games, posting a 2.41 GAA and a (fitting) .911 save percentage. Vejmelka has kept opponents under 4 goals – the threshold Utah’s been scoring at home – for all but three of those games. Only one, at home, saw 4 goals against.

Vejmelka was fantastic against Dallas in his last outing, giving up just a single goal to Rantanen in a 2-1 victory. We need him to shake off last game and earn a second nickname tonight

Projected Lineups:
Looks like we’re running it back:

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Barrett Hayton — Daniil But
Michael Carcone — Jack McBain — Kailer Yamamoto
Brandon Tanev — Kevin Stenlund — Liam O’Brien

Mikhail Sergachev — Sean Durzi
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Nick DeSimone

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Game start 7PM at the Delta Center or Utah 16 / SEG plus

TUSKS UP!