^{Utah can show their playoff credibility and generate some space in a tight WC race tonight against Dallas}

The Dallas Stars are firmly in a position for a top 3 playoff position in the Central Division. Sitting in second place, 2 points above the Minnesota Wild, it’s not likely they’ll catch the Colorado Avalanche for top spot, but are 13 points above the wild card position. Owning the second highest point total in the NHL, and on pace for 110 points, the Dallas Stars in a typical year be in the discussions for the President’s Trophy. However, with Colorado challenging Boston for the NHL’s record in points in a season, a lot of conversations about best team in the league disrespect where Dallas is.

The Stars are a loaded team, with plenty of firepower up front, and solid goaltending on the back end. Dallas is tied for third in total goals scored for the year (158) and has the 4th highest goals per game rate in the NHL (3.36/g). Dallas’ accolades don’t stop at goal scoring, either. For the season, Dallas sits 7th – one spot above Utah – for goals against, (2.77/g). They are third best in the league in goal differential, at +28, behind Colorado – obviously – and the Tampa Bay Lightning. No other team is above +20.

Power play? 2nd best in the league at 28.5%. Penalty Kill? Until recently, top 10.

All these accolades are fantastic for Dallas, but is Utah playing them at a fortunate time? Dallas is in a bit of a slump since Christmas, going just 2-4-3 (7 pts) out of a possible 18.

Let’s define the struggle:
Their goals for and goals against have flipped, giving up nearly one goal a game extra than their opponents on average, while their vaunted power play and penalty kill rates have cratered. A big reason for this is their special teams play.

Up through Christmas, their power play was at a staggering 31.6% and penalty kill at 82.6% – almost identical to Utah’s PK during our amazing stretch in November and early December. This made them top 2 in the PP in the league, top 8 in PK. Now, they sit 3rd from the bottom in both categories. They’re currently 10% with the extra man, but giving up a goal in 1 of every 3 power plays against them.

Through Christmas, they were NHL best 37 goals for, even out pacing Edmonton and their generationally good power play unit. Since then? The fewest goals (2) and fewest chances drawn in the league with just 20.

The other half of the special teams equation falls on the goaltending and defense. The Dallas tandem of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have been tops in the league all year, though since Christmas they have seemed completely beatable. Oettinger, in particular, seems more than human – posting just an .861 save percentage and allowing close to 4 goals per game. DeSmith, playing better, is still allowing close to 3, and also has a sub .900 save percentage.

Their defense isn’t allowing more shots; their total shots against per game have stayed nearly exactly the same. However, quality of shots – namely on the power play – have been extremely high.

Last thoughts before this goes too long (too late):
Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen are still lighting things up for the Stars, as they continue to post well over a 1 point per game pace each. However, these numbers have slid from before Christmas, due in large part to their power play struggles. 48 combined points in 38 games before Christmas has diminished to just 2 in the last 9 games. They’re still performing well at even strength, however, as along with Jason Robertson, they’re the only three players with more than 2 goals at even strength in the past 10 games.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Super Stars The Dallas Stars may be struggling over their past 10 games, but make no mistake – this is a playoff game for the Mammoth. This is a divisional game, with the second best team in the league, and one that can snap a losing streak in an instant. Between solid goaltending and scoring threats from 3 lines, the Stars are a game they need to treat like the Toronto Maple Leafs game.

Unlike the Leafs, Dallas isn’t coming from a back to back overtime game with next to no sleep. Dallas is coming in angry, hungry, and desperate to change their fates.

Hard play, from puck drop to final horn is critical. The energy level must match, at minimum, what was brought against the Leafs. The Mammoth need to keep the Stars first line in check – like they did with the Matthews line last game – to give themselves room to operate and hopefully play with a lead.

Not-tinger Jake Oettinger is an elite caliber goaltender, and one with fantastic career stats. He’s been struggling the past few games, being pulled once against the Carolina Hurricanes back on the 7th. He’s not playing at his best, for some reason, so the Mammoth need to capitalize.

Oettinger was pulled after 15 shots against Carolina, letting up 5 goals, after letting up 4 against Montreal and Chicago in back to back starts.

Last game against the LA Kings on Monday, he only gave up 1 goal against and posted a .960 save percentage.

Utah was one of the only teams to push him to .900 or worse play from mid-November to January 1st, so we’re capable of scoring on him. Given his recent struggles, to prevent him from getting back to that form, Utah needs to pepper him with quality shots early, perhaps from a successful power play or two (more on that momentarily).

Power Up The Mammoth power play needs to have a break out game, and this game has to be that game. The Stars are struggling hard in their penalty kill right now, one of the worst in the league since Christmas. Dallas has given up 10 more penalties than they’ve taken in that time (+1.1 per game), so Utah and their speed have a great opportunity to force Dallas into short handed situations, where they can – and should – capitalize.

The Utah power play has struggled for a number of reasons, and I’ve been noodling in my head an article about why that is. Ultimately, though, the Mammoth PP is an Achilles’ heel for them; with even a 20th place 19% power play percent, Utah would have 5-6 more goals on the season. While that may not seem like a lot, consider that the Mammoth lost games against Colorado and Calgary by one goal (excluding ENG) where they had multiple failed power plays, which could have got them a point at minimum, lost a late game against Florida in the final seconds, where they were 0/3 on the PP, lost in OT to the Islanders at home where they were just 1 for 6 against an exhausted Islanders team, and numerous other spots in the year where a goal would have either solidified the lead entirely, or brought them back into the game at a critical time.

The game may very well hinge on the Mammoth power play in particular, so Andre Tourigny and crew need to get their systems fixed and ready to rock ASAP.

Projected Lineups:
After a solid game last game, no changes to any of the lines.

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Barrett Hayton — Daniil But
Michael Carcone — Jack McBain — Dylan Guenther
Brandon Tanev — Kevin Stenlund — Liam O’Brien

Mikhail Sergachev — Sean Durzi
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Nick DeSimone

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Game starts 7PM at the Delta Center

TUSKS UP!