^{Toronto brings the league‘s strangest corporate endorsement to town}

The surging and impressive Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Delta Center tonight, the final meeting of these two teams for the season. Previously, Utah visited Toronto back in November, losing 5-3 just as their November slide began to take hold.

The Leafs come to town after beating the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in overtime, breaking the 17 game home win streak of the Avalanche. Toronto is currently sitting on a 10 game point streak (8-0-2), and 4 game win streak.

The Maple Leafs bring a completely different challenge to the Mammoth than the one faced on Sunday, as the Maple Leafs are not a shot volume team on par with Columbus, they’re a goal scoring team with plenty of high-end talent and veteran presence.

The Mammoth (4-1-1 in January) will be dealing with a more tired Toronto team; we said that about the Blue Jackets as well, however unlike Sunday, the Mammoth will be facing Toronto’s backup goaltender in Dennis Hildeby vs. starter Justin Woll. Hildeby is no slouch, with a 4-5-4 record hiding a shutout win. His 2.75 GAA and .916 save percentage are comparable to Karel Vejmelka’s; Hildeby gives up slightly more goals per game, but saves more shots against.

Hildeby’s not expected to be a superstar in net, since Toronto – as has been their ethos the past few years – is designed to score more goals than their opponents in a more open, run and gun style play. Currently, over their 10 game point streak, Toronto is ouscoring opponents 43-25, a 4.3 goals per game clip. Their only low-scoring win was a 2-1 overtime win against Philadelphia; all of their other wins has seen the Leafs score at least 4 goals. Their two overtime losses, 4-3 against Detroit and 3-2 versus the Islanders, and the Philadelphia game are the only games they scored 3 or fewer goals in this 10 game stretch.

Special teams is a strength for the Leafs this year, especially since Christmas. Since December 26th, Toronto has a 35% power play effectiveness, alongside a 91% PK rate. Add to that a shorthanded goal, and the PK is scoring nearly as many goals as it’s giving up.

Tonight’s not a trap game, it’s a playoff style game and the Mammoth need to come out far better than they did in the previous game to give themselves a chance to win.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Play to your (even) strengths The last thing the Mammoth need to do today is visit the box for any reason. The Maple Leafs are just too good at the moment to exchange penalties and kills with.

After giving up 2 goals to a Blue Jackets team that was 0-17, the penalty killers that were so feared in November and December are no longer there for Utah. Facing a team that’s north of 30% on their power plays recently, any penalties are recipes for massive disaster.

On the flip side, a struggling power play isn’t showing any confidence at all, and there’s no changes to systems to be had. Why tempt fate? Keep things 5v5 where Toronto is giving up their goals – 21 of the past 25 have been 5v5. Conversely, only 26 of their goals have come at even strength.

For comparison, Utah’s only given up 19 goals since Christmas, and 11 of them were 5v5. Stay out of the box, play tight, and force the Leafs to beat you where they’re weakest – at full strength.

Branching Out While we know the household names, and while I’d be remiss in omitting them, you know who the usual culprits are. Matthews? 14 points since Christmas. Tavares? 8. Morgan Rielly? Still a defensive liability that is over half a point per game production.

The Maple Leafs have seen top scorer William Nylander take a brief IR hiatus. Luckily for the Mammoth, he’s back and healthy, posting 5 points (2g, 3a) in his previous 2 games. He’s back, for fun.

In addition to one of the best goal scorers in the league being back and healthy, and many of their stars playing where they should, a number of other contributors have popped up for the Leafs.

Matthew Knies, breakout player for the Leafs last year, is pacing just under a point per game.

Old friend, Matias Maccelli, has almost matched his 2024 numbers with Utah with 20 fewer games played. He’s on pace for just over half a point per game after a rough year with Utah. Maccelli is on pace for 13-14 goals and has already matched 2024’s assist numbers.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who the Mammoth pay but has never seen a Utah sweater in any iteration, is leading their defensemen with 27 points, and is on pace for his best year since 2018.

Even Bobby McMann, their undrafted 4th line center, is on pace for a career year in points. One other note, Nick Robertson, on the third line – is also on a career pace. However, Robertson may miss tonight’s game after leaving Colorado with an injury. This shifts the lines slightly, and McMann may end up running 3rd line duties.

All this is to say, there are no easy defensive matchups against the Leafs. All four lines, unlike many other teams in the league, have the ability to score on you.

With such diverse scoring opportunities to face, it’ll be critical for our defensive pairings to tighten up. Sean Durzi, who has been playing very well of late, needs to minimize turnovers and mental mistakes. Mikhail Sergachev needs to ensure he’s not overcommitting on offense to the detriment of his blue line duties.

Watch for players like Nick Schmaltz and JJ Peterka on the back check to help defuse Maple Leaf scoring chances.

A solid back check, and opportunistic 5v5 rush chances, should trim any advantages that the Maple Leafs have relied on all year.

Milk and Veggies The Maple Leafs are crushing it in the goals for department, while the Mammoth have been one of the best defensive teams in January. Ironically tied with the Maple Leafs for 3rd best goals against per game, the Mammoth have been able to keep teams from getting too far ahead of them.

The only regulation loss, 4-1 to New Jersey, was also the only time Utah gave up more than 2 goals in regulation.

A big part of this is the strength of Karel Vejmelka’s play. Veggie has just a 2.19 goals against average, while saving .920%. His .932% on 5v5 play is seconds only to John Gibson in Detroit for the amount of volume of shots he’s faced. Vejmelka’s stopped 96 of the 103 even strength shots he’s faced.

Hildeby has a .972% 5v5 since Jan 1, but that stat is massively inflated from a relief effort that saw Toronto come back 6-5 against the Jets. Game logs of similar volume put him at just .891 and 12 goals against with 110 shots faced.

So, with above, keeping the situations 5v5 play best to Utah’s hands in both goaltending and forward positions.

Projected Lineups:
Lineups projected as of 1PM via NHL. Liam O’Brien in, Kailer Yamamoto out. Daniil But and Dylan Guenther swap positions.

Clayton Keller — Nick Schmaltz — Lawson Crouse
JJ Peterka — Barrett Hayton — Daniil But
Michael Carcone — Jack McBain — Dylan Guenther
Brandon Tanev — Kevin Stenlund — Liam O’Brien

Mikhail Sergachev — Sean Durzi
Nate Schmidt — John Marino
Ian Cole — Nick DeSimone

Karel Vejmelka
Vitek Vanecek

Late start tonight, 8PM at the Delta Center. Game featured on ESPN, so spin the wheel of “do I have this package” to watch tonight.

TUSKS UP!