^{Utah gives up the lead three times en route to a 4-3 loss to close out 2025.}

Tonight, Utah hosted the Nashville Predators, a team that has been fairly hot in the month of December. Utah’s first game since the holiday would be one that saw backup goaltender, Vitek Vanecek start his second game in a row. News earlier in the day put starter Karel Vejmelka on IR, sidelining him indefinitely.

Would Utah’s extra rest prove helpful, or would the IR news signal some additional post holiday blues?

FIRST PERIOD:
The two teams seemed to have some of the leftover Christmas hangover going on the first few minutes, with not much pressure on either end to start the game. A floater on Vanecek about 2 minutes in was the only exciting action before the 17 minute mark passed, as play was choppy and a number of stoppages made early game flow impossible.

Once the game started going, though, it went quickly. Michael Carcone had a wraparound chance shortly after 3 minutes in, and Utah kept pressure on for about a minute, culminating on Dylan Guenther ripping a solid shot at Juuse Saros that was gobbled up without a rebound.

Teams traded back and forth play for the next minute, until Utah had some good forechecking pressure that kept the puck in Nashville’s end. The Predators ended up committing the first penalty of the game off this effort, though, as Nicolas Hague high-sticked Barrett Hayton in the face. Painful and illegal, and worth 2 minutes of time out.

The first crack in the Predators zone was uneventful, but following that initial clear, individual effort by JJ Peterka led to him also scoring the game’s first goal. Peterka fell, losing control of the puck to Saros behind the net. However, JJ was able to catch the clearing attempt around the glass, and feed it back to the blue line. Keeping it onside, Mikhail Sergachev fed along the blue line to Clayton Keller. Keller spotted Guenther at the goal line. Holding the puck while skating to the net from the side of it, Gunner drew Brady Skjei out of position; Dylan hit a wide open Peterka on the far side of Saros for the easy tap-in, backdoor goal for the good guys. 1-0 Utah

The one thing the Mammoth have been really good at the past few games is limiting momentum after goals for or against. Team Tusk took control of the puck off the draw, and even had a really good scoring attempt from a point shot deflection by Alex Kerfoot right by the paint, but he couldn’t convert. The Mammoth sustained pressure, though, and the puck ended up on the far boards for Barrett Hayton to walk in all alone on Saros, but his shot wasn’t able to sneak in near-side.

A minute later, Daniil But almost doubled the lead for the Mammoth, with a close in backhand after a fantastic centering feed, but he was also denied by Saros.

Nashville eventually found their footing and countered Utah’s initial push over the first 10 minutes. At the 10:30 mark, the Predators nearly beat Vanecek after a turnover by Ian Cole in the defensive end. However, on the regrouped attack, Roman Josi threaded a seeing-eye shot through 3 Utah Mammoth defenders and right under the far crossbar behind Vanecek. It was a shot that the netminder didn’t see, and none of the bodies in front were able to stop. Not the best shot that’s beaten a Utah netminder this year – that was by Necas earlier in the year – but a deceptively difficult shot nonetheless. 1-1 Tied

Hey weird, Steven Stamkos assisted on that goal. I wrote about him last night, and how he’s really good and how we need to watch out for him. Ah, I’m sure they have this.

Utah, as true to form lately, responded immediately to the goal with pressure and forced play away from their own end. Nearly 20 seconds later, Jack McBain and Carcone nearly connected for a back-door passing play by Saros, but Carcone was unable to get the pass through.

Utah had some really good zone time about 12 minutes in, but nearly 45 seconds of offensive pressure resulted in nothing positive. Utah was able to cycle, but they refused to put puck on net to give themselves chances. They eventually got a nice rush chance by Dylan Guenther, but his long range shot wasn’t able to solve Saros. Carcone and But nearly connected again a minute later; a stretch pass for But just missed long, but But had Soros beat…

Utah continued to press through the rest of the period, drawing a boarding penalty with 3 minutes to go. With Cole Smith in the box, Utah went to work for the second power play attempt of the night.

Guenther had an early look, a blue line slap shot that had no traffic in front allowing for an easy save. The Mammoth took a minute to regroup, and a Nick Schmaltz attempt from low in the zone was stopped by Saros. His next attempt, a forehand-backhand move in front of Saros had the tendy beat, but he hit the crossbar and the puck stayed out. Utah had another few shots on net, but nothing spectacular. The penalty ended with about a minute to play, and that last minute of play ended uneventfully. Score after 1 was tied at 1.

Mammoth with 11 shots, Nashville 7 at the break.

SECOND PERIOD:
The second period started similarly to the first, with each team testing, but not pressuring, their opponent. The first real test for either team occurred for the Mammoth, when McBain threw a puck from behind the net to the slot, but it came too close to Saros for But to make a play on it. On their next shift, But tried to slide the pass to a crashing Carcone, but the connection missed.

Meanwhile, Utah was extremely efficient on the defensive end. Luke Evangelista tried to penetrate the Mammoth defense in to the slot multiple times, but was denied and stripped of the puck repeatedly. Shots going towards Vanecek were blocked up high or steered aside, keeping the Mammoth lead in tact.

Following a pair of stoppages, Utah won an offensive zone draw. A blocked shot my Nick Schmaltz was almost cleared, but Sean Durzi was able to keep it in the offensive zone. Cycling the puck, it eventually made its way to Sergachev at the line. The big Russian defenseman threw a slap shot at the net. Saros, screened by several of his own players, got a piece of the puck with his glove, but it got by him to allow Utah to regain the lead. 2-1 Utah

Utah continued to pressure after the goal, smothering any counter attack, while providing a few opportunities of their own. The best, about 2 minutes after the goal, came from a great feed to Kevin Stenlund. Stenny, below the dot, tried to go 5-hole, but Saros just had enough time to move and set, covering any vulnerable areas and preventing a bigger deficit for Nashville.

The next two minutes were fairly uneventful. Utah’s pressure didn’t get pucks on net, and Nashville’s pressure got cut off before it developed in the offensive zone. A combination slow line change and poor rebound control ended up hurting Utah. A shot that was partially blocked by Carcone made its way through to Vanecek, While the puck was stopped, it was in a spot that forced an uncontrolled rebound. The puck popped out in front, and an opportunistic Evangelista – who’d been trying to be in the slot all period – pounced and chipped the puck up and over Vanecek’s shoulder. 2-2 Tied

Following the goal, neither team got any sustained pressure over the next 2 minutes, but eventually Utah did start to gain momentum as the period went on. Just past the 10 minute mark, Utah had a grade-A chance when Guenther missed a shot; the bounce caromed to Ian Cole on the near side, but he was unable to lift a shot over a sliding Saros’ pads. Shortly after, Kerfoot had a redirected shot that was stopped, with Liam O’Brien in the crease but unable to locate the puck for the follow.

The last 7 minutes of play saw the teams share a total of 5 shots between them; this included the first penalty kill of the game for the Mammoth. Ian Cole was whistled for interference with 5 minutes to go, for dumping Erik Haula to the ice well behind the play.

The kill was fantastic, though. 2 big shot blocks on Stamkos helped prevent good scoring attempts from the superstar winger, and any pressure was a one-and-done clear.

Nick DeSimone ended the scoring chances on either side after the penalty was over, with a slot-shot from a feed from Schmaltz who was behind the net, but ultimately was turned aside.

Shots in the period – 10-9 favoring Utah. Utah led in shots 21-16 after 2.

THIRD PERIOD:
The first two periods were a tight back and forth affair, and Utah looked to immediately change that script in the third. Schmaltz threw a puck through the crease in the first minute, and Keller had a look skating through the slot, but a possible hook kept him from any offensive play. Utah kept sustained zone pressure, though, with nearly all of the first 2 minutes played in the Predators end.

Sergachev got an amazing opportunity about 3 minutes in, when some really solid Mammoth puck movement left him on the far dot all alone. He walked in, quite literally, on Saros with no pressure from any defense. Sergachev tried to make a move to draw Saros, which ultimately caused the goalie to drop and force Sergachev wide behind the net – but a potential pass just made its way through the slot harmlessly.

Dylan Guenther had a similar situation occur, with loads of time and space, on the next shift up the ice. Somehow, inexplicably, was left all alone 6 feet in front of Saros. A puck battle won by Barrett Hayton, and feed from Lawson Crouse to Guenther, saw the youngster dance in front of Saros with all the time in the world. When Saros went down, Guenther went around his right pad, tucking the puck in for the third lead of the game. 3-2 Utah

The Mammoth pressed again, including a few looks off a face-off win at the 15 minute mark, but to no avail. Eventually, they started to back off into a defensive mode, allowing the Predators to take risks and try and convert opportunities. All this, mind you, while things were escalating after nearly every play.

Utah didn’t allow the first Nashville shot until almost 6 and a half minutes in, but Nashville’s biggest opportunity came more than 8 minutes in. Michael McCarron tried to stuff in a wraparound, and poked at the rebound, forcing a good save by Vanecek.

Kevin Stenlund got called for a slashing penalty against Filip Forsberg with 10 minutes to play, completely not listening to what I told the Mammoth to watch out for in the pre-game. I’m not going to mention who ended up turning over the puck to Nashville to force that, because Liam O’Brien has been called out enough by me already for not being a great player…

After allowing just a few shots in the first part of the period, the Nashville power play came with the energy. Kerfoot disrupted the first team’s attempt with a beautiful defensive stick, but after a stoppage in the offensive zone, Nashville would equalize. Vanecek made some big-time saves, mind you – one point blank on Evangelista, and a superman dive save against Steven Stamkos (one that had me try and start a “VI-TEK” chant), but 10 seconds after that highlight reel save, Stamkos would bury the puck anyway, from a feed that saw him dead-center of the slot. All that energy from the PK unit and crowd, but the Mammoth couldn’t find a way to contain Stamkos. 3-3 Tied

Decent push by the Mammoth post-goal but neither team took a decisive advantage for a minute after puck drop. There was a lot more clutching, pushing, and grabbing after whistles and by nets, but in the end, play was generally even.

Nashville’s forecheck – something I touched on – ended up killing Utah, though. A dump in that was contested by Ryan O’Reilly saw him beat out Sean Durzi to the puck. O’Reilly’s pass back into the slot to a waiting Stamkos went through 2 waiting Mammoth players, and Stamkos did not hesitate to bury it behind Vanecek. After all the energy of the period, after containing the forecheck so well, and keeping the 1st line’s opportunities limited for the game to that point, this goal hurt. 4-3 Nashville

Utah responded with effort and energy, with Hayton drawing a late tripping penalty against Brady Skjei for the power play.

The power play had great chances, let me say. After an initial clear, nearly all the remaining power play was spent in the offensive zone. Schmaltz was all alone at the bottom of the dot, and a cross-ice feed could have scored the equalizer – but the pass was far too soft and was disrupted. Peterka fed Schmaltz in the slot, in front of Saros, but Schmaltz elected to pass back to Peterka from a bad angle and the shot was saved. Schmaltz again had an opportunity at the side of the net, but was far too slow to get a shot off on Saros. He was cross-checked from behind, though, giving Utah a two-man advantage for 25 seconds.

With the 2 man advantage, they lost the all critical face off, killing half the time from the extra advantage. They were unable to get any set-up and no shot attempts before the first penalty expired. Still, with more than a minute and a half, Utah had every opportunity to convert to tie the game.

Schmaltz, again, had the puck in the slot and elected to pass – leading to a turnover and clear. Peterka, to his credit, went in on Saros, and had his shot saved, and his centering feed from behind the net missed everyone behind him. Durzi had a feed to the slot late for one last attempt, but the pass didn’t connect and the penalties all expired harmlessly.

Vanecek was pulled with just under 2 minutes to go. Looking for the club’s first ever 6 on 5 goal, Utah failed to even get a shot off until the last 10 seconds, which was turned aside and the game ended.

Utah ends the game with a 31-26 edge in shots.

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3 GOALS (THE GOOD):

Durzgachev had a great offensive game as a pairing again. Notching a goal and an assist, the pairing has gelled quite nicely. Specifically, Sergachev’s play the past few games has really tightened up offensively and the chemistry he and Durzi have been building has really been paying off. While they had a miscue against Colorado in the 1-0 loss, and were responsible for what was ultimately the game-winning goal against tonight, the pairing has been a solid puck-moving pair helping juice the offensive capability of the team as a whole.

The 2nd Line Dylan Guenther had a phenomenal night, with a goal and an assist – and aside from an extremely unfortunate foreshadowing comment about having the most game winning goals in the calendar year – has been stellar in December. Defensively, his play has picked up significantly, and 8 goals in 14 games has him tied for 6th most in the league through December 29th.

On a line with Barrett Hayton and Lawson Crouse, however, he’s also elevated the play of his line as well. The line contributed a total of 3 points (1g, 2A) together and was defensively fairly sound as well. With Kerfoot coming in and helping shore up a 4th line, and Guenther stepping up in a mega-star level way to shore up a 2nd line, we’re starting to see the team come together for an actual playoff push in the back half of the year.
Tiny but Mighty Michael Carcone is one of the smaller players on the team, but he consistently punches above his weight. I’ve called him out nearly a dozen times this year, but value for production, Carcone is one of the best deals of the year. Carcone’s line didn’t fare well – on the ice for 2 of the goals against tonight, but his work to provide opportunities for Daniil But has been outstanding.

3 CHIRPS (THE BAD):

Bad Touch Tonight’s game was physical. Tons of after the whistle scrums, tons of pushing and shoving. Know who is great for that sort of thing?

Well, according to the team, not Kailer Yamamoto who sat again. Instead we were treated to another dose of keeping the lines the same – which saw no increase in physical play.

If we are getting the same result from our supposed muscle players on the 4th line no matter who they are, can we at least get someone in that has an ability to score or create some sort of offense?

Expectations vs. Reality is something philosophers who are way smarter than me don’t get paid to discuss. But what I don’t get paid to discuss is the difference between reality and expectations in the hockey sense. And, reality bites.

Tonight’s not the first night this week that Utah won the “expect to win-o-meter” that is put out by MoneyPuck. Utah had an 80-20 edge in expectations to win, and reality didn’t like that.

Other expectations: Daniil But was expected to hit .4 goals this game. Hayton and Schmaltz had expected stats in the 1.4 goals for territory. Vanecek had 2.2 expected goals against.

Utah’s expectations and reality are at massive odds against each other. Advanced stats show that Utah should be winning these games. Not only that, but most of the borderline games this year have advanced stats that show Utah winning with a 66% or better margin in more than half of those games.

Blew it Another series of late lead losses is crushing the team. The Mammoth over the course of the month have blown all sorts of leads, none worse than tonight to a division opponent at home. While the Predators have been a solid team for a month, allowing them to beat you in the final 10 minutes, not getting a 5-3 power play conversion, or even taking advantage of less than amazing goaltending from Juuse Saros is just another lost opportunity in a year full of them so far. A point was basically in hand after the effort from Guenther, and walking away without 2 was a shame, but without 1 was a travesty.

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Next up:

Happy New Year from New York, where the Mammoth take a 3 game road streak to Long Island, Manhattan and New Jersey.