^{Is my 2 divisional points on the road and first home regulation loss for the Avs this season}

Coming off a gutsy, if disturbing for giving up a 3 goal lead, win over Winnipeg, Utah ended their 2 game homestand to head to the mile high city, where Colorado’s not lost in regulation at all. In 16 home games, Colorado has 30 of a possible 32 points. That’s absolutely insane.

People are definitely counting out the Mammoth. And by people, I mean Vegas and the oddsmakers. And, if you’re looking at just the records, it makes sense. Utah struggled in November, they’re basically just over .500 at 18-17-3 compared to Colorado’s dominating 26-2-7. Colorado is basically going to take a divisional spot. They’re sitting at 59 points in 35 games. That’s a higher point total than 6 teams had all season since 2020-2021, and the season isn’t half done yet.

Colorado is dominant, but Utah’s already beaten them in overtime at the Delta Center. The first game of the season, Utah and Colorado were tied late, until bad coverage let Nathan McKinnon walk in on Karel Vejmelka all alone on the power play. In 2 games, Utah lost 2-1, and won 4-3 in overtime. Neither was a blowout, which is what Vegas expects.

Since those two games, Utah lost Logan Cooley but gained Alexander Kerfoot. Barrett Hayton, Michael Carcone, and Kailer Yamamoto all missed one of those games as a scratch, with Nick DeSimone missing both. All three of them are expected to be in the lineup today (Yamamoto and O’Brien still seem to be a gametime decision… you know how I feel.)

Would these players make a difference? Kerfoot certainly makes the 4th line significantly better, depending on his third linemate. Carcone’s been a massive component of this year’s third line. Hayton has performed better the past two weeks at 2C.

Will that be enough?

Key points to secure a victory today:
Avalanche Control Utah’s had two close games with the Avalanche this year. Does that mean we’ll have a third? No, not necessarily. However, Colorado’s run away with a ton of games this year, and once they’re ahead they’re impossible to beat.

Colorado at 5v5 is the best team in the league. Scoring 100 goals already this year at full strength, they’re outscoring opponents by 48 points.

Utah only allowed 1 goal 5v5 on the first game of the year against Colorado. They allowed 3 on the second game. 4 goals on 60 shots against Colorado (with a PPG in there) is actually really good. Colorado is averaging about 4 goals every 31 shots this year otherwise.

If Utah can contain the dangerous Avalanche team to perimeter shots and disrupt play like they did early in the season, you cut their even strength powerhouse offense off at the knees.

Uneven Distribution Somehow, inexplicably, a team with Cale Makar and Nathan McKinnon isn’t a top power play unit in the league. In fact, they’re not even scoring at a 20% rate. For a team as talented as that, this is shockingly average.

What’s good news for Utah is their PK at home hasn’t really been great, either. They’re running a 75% kill rate at home. While this is better than some of the teams Utah’s faced, it’s far from unbeatable.

The Avalanche are still capable of scoring at any point, at any time, but in order to give themselves the best chance, Utah needs to score at least 50% on their power play tonight.

Keeping it close Yes, I mean score, obviously, but more importantly keeping their players close. Do not allow Cale Makar time to create. Do not allow Nathan McKinnon to create. Do not allow Colorado to get easy zone entries. Do not allow Colorado’s defensemen easy breakouts.

Forechecking hard is critical. Zone denials and delays are critical. Limiting icings and defensive zone faceoffs are huge. The more Utah frustrates the Avalanche away from the net, the better off they’ll be.

Naturally, no game is played on the other end of the ice completely, so when there is defensive zone time, shadowing everyone at all times is the name of the game. No easy passes. No time and space to walk in the slot. Bodies in front of bodies.

If it’s anything short of a bear hug, do it. Live inside their shadows on the ice, do not give them more than 18 inches of space, and play them as tight and as hard as possible.

Projected Lineups:
According to Tourigny, no lineup changes….

TUSKS UP!