^{Utah visits Boston in hopes of a 3 win streak and a sweep of the season series}

What a difference a couple of days make. Mid-point in the homestand last week, Utah was struggling to score and struggling to get and keep momentum. Fast forward three games, and they’ve got an impressive come from behind win against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and a thumping of the Seattle Kraken.

Taking this momentum into Boston, the Mammoth face the Bruins in a rematch from October 19th, where Utah beat Boston 3-2 at the Delta Center.

The Mammoth are a different team today than they were just two months ago. Utah, in the middle of a 7 game win streak and on their way to top of the division, seemed unstoppable. Since then, Utah went on a slide throughout November, one which they hope they’re climbing out of with the past two wins.

Boston, on the other hand, started out mediocre; they were 3-3-0 coming into the Delta Center, and the loss to the Mammoth pushed them further down the standings. A few more losses caused some panic in Beantown, but a 9-5 record in November righted their ship. Boston’s continued their push with a 4-2-0 December so far, and they are definitely on the upswing.

What’s changed with Boston?
Boston’s goaltending settled down significantly after their slide; they were giving up nearly 3.7 goals a game early in the season, but have dropped that to exactly 3GA since.

Utah faced off against Joonas Korpisalo early on, who took almost half the starts early on. Today, we expect Jeremy Swayman in net. = Swayman had solid numbers in a small sample size in October, but after a solid stumbled a bit in December after playing at a high level in November where he posted a .934 save percentage and just 2.06GAA, as struggling come December. He’s up to a 3.75 GAA and down to .873 save percentage over four games this month. There are rumors he is dealing with an injury, but is the expected starter regardless.

Boston’s remained a solidly scoring team all year, averaging 3 goals against through December 1st, but have recently ramped up scoring to more than 4.3 goals per game since the calendar flipped. Scoring 4 goals twice, 5 goals twice, and 6 once, the only game in which they scored less than 4 was a 6-2 loss against the Wild on the road in Minnesota.

Scoring has been led by Morgan Geekie; after the Mammoth game, Geekie has 20 goals (22 on the year). Already close to career highs, Geekie is thriving in Boston and is a critical piece of the top line. Opposite Geekie, David Pastrnak has had a little more quiet season than normal – on pace for under 30 goals – and far off his previous 3 season totals of 100+ each. However, Pastrnak just returned from injury and has 2 goals in his 3 games back, as he aims to get back to full form.

Charlie McAvoy returned to the lineup for Boston’s last week. McAvoy is a significant part of the Bruins defensive unit, and a major reason they’ve been better defensively. Another major factor, 3rd line center Fraser Minten, has significantly improved play on his line, bolstering the unit as a defensive shut-down line, which has improved its effectiveness through November and early December so far.

Boston’s power play, while not as lethal as Pittsburgh’s, is still extremely strong. Since the Mammoth loss, Boston’s been sporting a 29% success rate, making them a dangerous unit even with as solid as the Mammoth PK has been playing.

Key points to secure a victory today:
NERD ALERT It’s shocking to say this, but Pastrnak is not the most dangerous person on that top line, and attention shouldn’t focus on him, no matter the fact he’s nearly a guaranteed Hall of Famer…

Morgan Geekie is on pace to shatter his career year stats. With 22 goals and 35 points, he leads in scoring and is second in points only to Pastrnak. Geekie is 2nd in the league in goals scored, trailing only Nathan McKinnon (who is probably going to win the Rocket Richard trophy anyway).

Why is Geekie so good this year? Geekie is killing the NHL with his shot, and he’s doing it mostly 5v5. While Geekie has 10 points on the power play, only 5 are from goals. 17 goals at 5v5 trails only McKinnon (again) for even strength lethality.

How do you handle this? Well, while Geekie is tearing twine at an alarming rate, his linemates are… well\. On a line with Pastrnak, he’s only got 25 total 5v5 points. 8 goals from the units he runs with 5v5 means that focusing solely on Geekie is the only way to plan for that line.

Swayin’ in the wind Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman were an iconic duo a few years ago, but Boston had to pick one to be their guy. They chose Swayman, and Ullmark left for Ottawa.

It’s still too soon to say who is the better of the two, with Ullmark having a better year last year, and Swayman a bit better this. However, the fantastic tandem being split has had negative impacts on both.

Ullmark will be a discussion when we play Ottawa, but for Swayman, he dropped from the .910’s to just .892 last year. He’s been above .900 this year so far, but has struggled in December (as mentioned above).

Swayman, an excellent goalie by any standards, does have a glaring weakness that Ullmark didn’t have. Swayman tends to get beat high far more often than the average goaltender. Jeremy Swayman’s goaltending is like a reverse mullet. Business down below, party up top. Expect Utah shooters, who tend to shoot high anyway, to continue this pace.

Boston Three Party The Mammoth had a historical comeback against the Penguins, scoring 4 goals to erase a three goal deficit against Pittsburgh. Boston, however, doesn’t seem to have that sort of defensive lapse, especially when they put teams down by several goals early.

Boston outscores you, big, and that’s how they’ve been stringing together their wins. Holding Boston to 3 or fewer goals is a recipe for success against them.

From November 1st – today, Boston has only lost 7 games. In all but one of those games, they scored 3 or fewer (losing 5-4 against Detroit was the only game they scored more than 3 and lost).

Keeping Boston under 3 isn’t a guaranteed win, though. Boston’s won several close low scoring games, keeping opponents to fewer than 2 goals. 3, however, seems to be the Bruins’ magic number, though, so be on the lookout for that tonight.

Projected Lineups:
Minor defensive pairing change – Durzi with Sergachev and Marino with Schmidt expected.

TUSKS UP!