Utah goes for a Fantastic Four… er three game win streak

Don’t look now, but the team with the most number of road games played right now? Utah. We have played 18 road games, the same number as Calgary. Guess who’s away and who’s home tonight? One hint – it’s not Calgary.

How much do the schedule makers hate Utah? Well, our opponents lately have been the Ducks. 2 back-to-backs. The Canucks? 3, but one of those was at home with no travel time. Sharks? Well they’ve had 5! But 3 of them were at home, and one was against the Devils and Rangers who are within walking distance – if you don’t care about safety or the stink of New Jersey or the ick of Madison Square Garden.

So, what about Utah? This is our 5th. 10 of our 30 games have been back-to-back games. 19 of 30 games have been on the road. None of the road games have been “close travel” like back east.

Now, coming from an Islanders fan, a long road trip to start the season can be a thing. When UBS arena was getting built, a record shattering long road trip to start the year torpedoed their season. Utah also had some construction issues – which were wrapped up weeks before the puck dropped. What’s the league’s excuse? Your guess is as good as mine.

I’m done complaining, I just want to see hockey in person again sometime before I die….

Game Preview:
Calgary is coming away from an extremely bad start to the season. How bad? So bad that even going 5-3-2 in their last 10 games leaves them with the worst points percentage in the league. Well, second worst after that Canucks game last night at least.

Wait, a 5-3-2 record is quite good over the last 10 games. In fact, that’s the 6th best record in the NHL over the past 10 (well, tied for with a handful of other teams). With a good last 10, but still having THAT bad of a record… what’s the deal with Calgary anyway?

Honestly, I’m not sure Calgary’s fans – or their coaching staff – even know. They pulled out a win against Dallas, the 2nd best team in the league 2 weeks ago. They took Carolina to a 1-0 OT game. Then they got dog-walked by the Nashville Predators and beat the Minnesota Wild, effectively beating the #2 and #4 teams in the NHL, and going to OT with the #6 team – only to be smacked by the one team barely above them in the standings.

This is not the same Calgary team Utah played in the home opener, and Utah can’t bank on a Tusky reveal to boost them. Knowing what’s changed and what to look for will be important.

A few of the changes are pretty straightforward. By the middle of November, Calgary had the lowest goals for rate in the NHL. The New York Rangers, shut out 5 times at home (a record I love pointing out) had a higher goals per game output than Calgary. Since then? Well, they’ve improved their scoring more than half a goal per game, averaging 2.89/g since November 16th. They’ve improved their power play success, averaging 18.5%, up from just about 11.5% in the beginning of the year.

Calgary also tightened up their penalty kill. But, the improvement was not just a little bump. The Flames PK over the past 10 games sits at 96.7%. Worse? They’ve scored 2 SHG’s over that time. They gave up one goal, scored two – effectively, their penalty kill has more opportunity to score against you than you score against it.

The Calgary goaltending situation has been about the same all year, giving up close to 3 goals a game, but their heavy lifting has shifted from expected franchise goaltender Dustin Wolf to Devin Cooley (no relation to Logan). Cooley started out well, but has regressed towards his averages with the increased load. He has, however, offered several humorous post-game interviews about how he thinks about dying, which is on par for playing in Calgary.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Cool off Kadri’s compatriots.
Nazem Kadri was one of Calgary’s best players coming into the Delta Center in October. He’s still one of the best players this month. 11 points in his last 10 games, with 10 assists, mark him as one of the Flames top playmakers. Sure, most of his points are coming from the power play, but they’re all coming from assists.

Kadri is shooting a 3% right now. 3% on 37 shots in his past 10 games makes him the second lowest goal-scoring forward in the league. Only Jesper Bratt from New Jersey is worse – no goals with 32 shots.

Kadri is making noise in setting up plays, however. His target of choice on the power play has been Morgan Frost (2G) and he and Frost are primary/secondary assists on 2 other power play goals. Joel Farabee, his left-winger, is his primary partner for 5v5 goals.

Knowing these combinations and shutting them down will hamper Calgary’s offense quite a bit, forcing them to rely on Rasmus Andersson from the blue line.

Visibility is important.
The Mammoth have a lot of really good players. Players like Mikhail Sergachev are ones to build your team around. Goal scorers, even streaky ones, like Nick Schmaltz, force defenses to spread their coverage, allowing other teammates to contribute. And even a low use role player that doesn’t score, like Liam O’Brien, can get physical and make his presence know.

Lately, there have been invisible players or players not contributing to their strengths. Yesterday, a few of them found themselves in the spotlight, even briefly. Not all of them need to show up every game, but showing up when needed will be important. Being seen is an important thing according to my therapist, so it’s not just me feeling that.

Vane-checking in
The last time we saw Vanecek in net, he was in relief in the pre-turned around team. He didn’t have the best time in San Jose, giving up 3 goals on 21 shots. He’s had 7 starts, 8 games, and in total has posted a save percentage over .900 two times. Those times? October.

Since then, Vitek’s let in 3 or more goals each game. His save percentage is sitting at just .842%. Goals against average? Over 3.8/g. All four of his games he lost, and the 5th was in relief during an absolute mess.

Vejmelka has stepped up in the past few games in a big, big way. Can Vitek do the same, with the spotlight and starting nod going to him?

Projected Lineups:
Nothing released as of 5AM. However, it’s likely the same lines as last night go. Those lines are:

Keller – Schmaltz – Peterka

But – Cooley – Guenther

Carcone – McBain – Crouse

O’Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto

Sergachev – Marino

Schmidt – Durzi

Cole – Lamoureux

Vanecek
Vejmelka


Barrett Hayton and Brandon Tanev were healthy scratches for the previous two games. It’s hours before it’s confirmed, but I feel there will be a bit of a shake up with Hayton coming in and O’Brien sitting, but that’s just a guess. We’ll see.

Game time 5 PM local start

TUSKS UP!

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