^{We’re a third of the way through the season. How are we doing?}

Gameday preview post-thoughts. Right now, let’s explore what’s going on with the team.

November was a bad month for the Mammoth. A very anemic power play, a number of low scoring games, and struggles in net led Utah to the worst record in the NHL. After a blistering hot start, what gives?

A lot of people are pointing the finger squarely at coaching. And, calling for a coaching change is not unheard of in the middle of a season. While Andre Tourigny, long time bench boss for the Arizona Coyotes, and now Utah Mammoth, is in the 5th year of coaching a Clayton Keller team, he brings positives and negatives to the team. Some of these are overshadowed by the recent problems, but taking an assessment of where we stand in total is probably a good step.

HISTORY:
Tourigny has been coaching since at least 2002 in some capacity. His time began in the QMJHL (Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League, a division of the Canadian Hockey League – the CHL – and a pipeline for prospects into the NHL); he spent a few seasons in the OHL before going to Arizona in 2021.

Pros:
His body of work was largely spent with younger players and player development. This is a great quality to have with a team of young players, like Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Daniil But, and JJ Peterka. He’s a player coach, and the players reportedly love him from all his different positions. His record in the NHL has been steadily improving, as he’s taken an 8th place Arizona Coyotes team in 2021 to a 6th place finish last year. While 6th isn’t impressive in the standings on paper, the team finished with 89 points – Tourigny’s highest total in his career, and the team finished well over NHL .500.

Cons:
On that note, Tourigny has never been to the NHL playoffs, so his success in the post season isn’t known. Making the playoffs has been a challenge – due in large part to a long Arizona rebuild. The team was on a playoff trajectory in their first season in Utah, but bad stretches of play – notably at home – left the team on the outside looking in come spring. His systems seem to be well adjusted to by opposing coaches in game, and his counter-adjustments seem to be unable to match. In 2024, Coach Bear teams had a -7 goals against ration in the 2nd and 3rd periods (-14 in total). They were 20th in the league in scoring. This year, the team scoring is better – at 15th in the league – but the losses come from the adjustments. The team has a -13 goal differential in the 2nd period this year, with just 27 games played. While this is not sustainable, this is a pace for -38 goal differential in the middle frame. The third period goals for is up, but that’s less a structural issue, it’s more a desperation one.

In addition, the power play unit for Utah is – no surprise after November – is last in the league. They posted just a 5.3% success rate in November. They had as many shorthanded goals as they did power play ones. To compare, in 2024, Utah was a top 10 power play unit. When the team struggled, there were no significant changes to the unit. While Blaine Forsythe is the coach running the power play units, ultimately the final call goes to the head coach.

Finally, player lineup changes have been questionable at times. The biggest question, recently, was the benching of Logan Cooley in the game against the St. Louis Blues. Arguably the best player on the ice (and the top 3 player all year for the Mammoth) it was definitely confusing and concerning that he was not playing in a one goal game against a divisional opponent. Additionally, some of the scratches and line-up decisions don’t seem to align to counter the strengths of the opposing teams, especially recently against the Sharks and Ducks.

So…
With all that said, it’s understandable about the frustration. Is that the cause for all the issues? Well, it’s definitely a part of the overall issues. There is accountability that needs to be held elsewhere, too.

Players:
A number of players are playing well below their capabilities.
Utah’s defensemen this year have contributed 8 goals through 27 games compared to 15 last year. At this point last year, Sergachev himself had 7 goals, with Kesselring adding 4. This year? Sergachev has 3, DeSimone has 2. No other defenseman has more than 1 goal.

Since the slid began, Utah’s had 4 total goals from the defense in 16 games. Compare that to 9 last year. Additionally, Utah defensemen are on the ice for far more goals against. The biggest culprit – Sergachev – went from a +7 last year to a -10. The rest of the team fares just as badly. Last year, one defenseman was negative – Ian Cole. This year? Only 2 players have positive net goals against, and not surprisingly it’s Nate Schmidt and John Marino.

Goaltending. Last year, the 16 games in November saw 38 goals against and a .913 combined save percentage. This year, 51 GA and .868. This is due to a massive regression from Karel Vejmelka, who went from a 2.18 goals against average to a 2.95 GAA, while facing nearly 50 shots fewer in 2 more games. Veggie of 2024 was shelled, and stood tall. So far, he’s been getting tested less, but failing to meet the task way more often.

In the forward group, we have some great standouts for the team. JJ Peterka co-leads the team with 6 goals, tied with Cooley. This is where Cooley was last year, so he’s not showing regression.

Jack McBain led the team with 7 goals in 2024. This year? 1. And his contributions have declined significantly – he had 9 points in 2024, and just 4 this year. This is despite the fact he’s on a line with Peterka, mentioned above as having the most goals on the team, and Lawson Crouse who has 5 goals and 9 points in the same timeframe. He’s not getting to the net, and not winning the battles he needs to win to generate better pressure from the third line.

Barrett Hayton didn’t score last year in November, but he was able to contribute with 5 assists, and with solid defensive play that led to a +6 rating. This year, Hayton has scored a goal… and that’s his only point. 1 point, 16 games. He also sports a -6 rating, so his game is suffering all around and it shows with a -12 point swing in his value.

Nick Schmaltz went from 10 points to just 5 (and a team worst -11). After such a hot start to the year, he’s averaging less than half a point per game, a swing of more than a point per game. Shooting percentage? Down 40%. Special teams play? Awful.

His 3 PPGs and 3 assists in October? Not a single point (in 5 more games of play). His shots in November? 3. He has less shots in a month than he had points in 4 fewer games in October.

Dylan Guenther‘s shooting percentage has plummeted from 12.5% to 7.7%. He’s also missing a ton more shots than earlier in the year. He’s gone from over a point per game to less than half a point per game. He’s a career almost 13% shooter who went from clutch scoring 4 game winning goals in 11 games, to 0 in 16.

LAST ISSUE: GM
For Utah fans, calling out Bill Armstrong is anathema. GMBA has made some amazing signings and deals – trading for Maatta last year was low-key one of the best moves of the year, and the deals for Yamamoto, Carcone, and the Guenther and Cooley signings are fantastic.However, it needs to be pointed out that during rough stretches of scoring droughts, no moves were made to bring up Daniil But. But, not the team’s savior, but a big piece moving forward, was tearing it up in the AHL. While the move was made now, it may be too late.

The lack of a stop-gap true 2C is also difficult at times. This is a tough ask – any good 2C wants term, and the team has prospects in the pipeline, but the center situation in Utah seems bleak and it’s frustrating to see it remain unaddressed.

So is the sky falling?
It seems so for the short term, and for the longer term outlook this may very well be the end to a potential playoff season. The Sharks, Ducks, and Blackhawks have all risen from misery to become serious teams again. Seattle is seeing a resurgence. The top 10 goal scorers in the league all reside in the West.

The division is all but lost considering Colorado is unstoppable and the Stars have found their footing as the #2 best team in the league. Minnesota? #3. The three best teams in the league are all in our division. Utah is 8 points below Minnesota and an unbelievable 16 below Colorado. It’s hard to believe Utah led the division at this point last month.

The Wild Card is still up for grabs, but losing games to Chicago on the road, 2 against San Jose, and one against Anaheim already bodes poorly for the Mammoth. Anaheim looks to finish top 3 in the division, but if they somehow slip, that loss will loom large. They play their second against the Ducks tonight, which leads me to:

Game Preview:
Utah thankfully isn’t coming off a back-to-back for this game, but the recent struggles for the team are well known. Coming off an emotionally charged series that saw the team shut out when Clayton Keller’s homecoming coincided with the loss of his father, the team has seemingly lost cohesiveness and a sense of identity.

Anaheim, meanwhile, continues to overachieve and impress everyone. Sitting atop the Pacific Division, Anaheim’s kids are playing top notch hockey. They’re coming off a brief road trip which saw them lose to Chicago on Sunday, and beat the Blues on Monday.

As with the writeup I had last month, the three main goal scorers and top threats for Anaheim remain Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Chris Kreider. Six Ducks players sit at 19 or more points for the year. Anaheim’s given up more than 3 goals a game on average, but they far outscore their opponents – making them a tough match up.

Utah is running a vastly different lineup today, with Daniil But and Maveric Lamoureux making their season debuts tonight. Additionally, the Mammoth have made some healthy scratches in Hayton and Tanev. This means that we’ll see Nick Schmaltz playing 1C, But replacing Yamamoto, Peterka sliding into Schmaltz’ wing position, and Carcone rejoins line 3.

Key points to secure a victory today:

Figure out an identity and stick to it.
Lines are weird, but weird may be what it takes to break Utah out of their funk. Peterka hasn’t really had top line minutes since October, and as a pure goal scorer, he needs that sort of time and playmaking around him. But, another highly skilled scorer, is playing with the previous “Kid” line which makes it “Kid 2.0” line. The traditional third and 4th lines return, hopefully bringing grit and attitude to the game.

Playing with the top 2 lines as scoring lines, and the bottom 2 as energy/possession lines means they’re looking to set an identity for the team that has been lacking. Hopefully, they’ll be able to make it work – and stop with the line blender mid-game to let these guys gel.

Take it to the Ducks early.
Utah hasn’t really played with much fire and emotion lately, so it’s critical that they start out with an intensity and drive immediately. They don’t need to score 2 minutes into the game – though we’d all love that – but not rolling over to physicality immediately can help set a tone they badly need.

Beginner’s Luck The power play badly needs a scoring touch, and in his first game in the NHL can Daniil But crack a poorly executing roster? He’s got a great touch, he’s got physicality, and we’ll need to see how he plays in the big boy games.

Maveric Lamoureux played last year, so his luck isn’t “beginner”, but he hasn’t been up in the NHL in over a year. He had a good start to his year last year. Putting up a respectable 3 points in 15 games, with a +3 rating, he struggled with some penalty situations (10 in his last 7 games), so if those are figured out, and he can play well with Ian Cole on his line, hopefully we’ll see the prospects start filling out.

Projected Lineups:
As alluded to earlier, a lot of movement tonight:

TUSKS UP!