^{Can it be? Is Utah going to be home for more than 2 games in a row?}

The Mammoth return to the friendly confines of the Tundra (the Delta Center, I’m going to make that name stick somehow) after a very emotional back-to-back trip to California. This time, it’s actually going to be long enough they can unpack their bags!

Of course, this trip also comes with an unusual quirk. At home, the Mammoth face the Vegas Golden Knights 2 times in 3 games. 66% of the season series, and 100% of the home games in the season series, take place in a span of 4 days.

Utah and Vegas have had some similar luck lately; both teams have been on the brutal end of OT games (including against the Islanders on both halves of their back-to-back), both teams are struggling to score, and both teams are finding themselves dealing with some goaltending issues. Utah, however, doesn’t have the excuse Vegas does. Vegas is down starting goaltender Adin Hill, man of glass and cap shenanigans Mark Stone is out until probably Thanksgiving, and William Karlsson is on the shelf until December.

Despite landing Toronto outcast Mitch Marner, the Knights have struggled since Stone went down. Overall goals are down about half a goal per game. This is a chicken and egg problem for the Knights. With Stone and Hill down, their scoring and goaltending both have taken a hit. They could choose to replace Stone with an offensive threat, and keep scoring up – but then Stone’s defensive play coupled with Hill missing would mean a lot more goals against.

So, to address their issues, they’ve compensated by playing a far more conservative game. As a result, the goaltending seems to have corrected itself a bit. They’ve not been stealing games, but they’re no longer actively losing them. Vegas has given up 3 or fewer goals in regulation in 7 of 8 games this month, with the last three games (Blues, Wild, and Rangers) seeing them only allow 2 or fewer in regulation.

All that goalie sheltering has a cost, though, and that cost is goals for. If Hill was in net, and Vegas could trust their goaltending, the focus on offense could likely compensate for Stone’s absence. However, the conservative play and focus means they are scoring less. They’ve gotten 3 goals or fewer in 7 of the 8 games as well. The only game with more than 3 goals for was against St. Louis last week, a 4-1 win.

Vegas’ games have been close this month, aside from the game giving up more than 3, and the game getting more than three. They’ve gone to OT 3 times in the past two weeks, and have been in one-goal games in 5 of their last 6 contests, and 6 of 8 for the month of November.

With Stone out, the power play was straight up bad for quite a bit of time. However, they’ve seemed to figure it out – since a shorthanded OT goal by the Islanders beat them, they’ve improved significantly. They went 2/4 against Minnesota, and 2/2 against the Rangers in the past two games – an insane 67% rate. Yikes.

Key points to secure a victory today:
Defensive Paper Tiger The Knights’ goals against lately is misleading. The reason they’re seeing close games is the fact they’re clamping down hard on shots against. Very similar to what Utah’s done all year, the Knights have locked in on chances in the defensive zone, allowing under 24 a game since the turn of the calendar.

That opens up the same problem Utah’s had this year – goaltending has been mediocre at best The Knights save percentage in November is hovering around .880, still better than Utah’s .850. This means the Mammoth should be familiar with the style of play that beats this situation. Basically, any chances that get through are all dangerous. The Knights aren’t letting in muffins, but they’re not closing the door either.

Get shots through, and you’ll have good chances. Simple as that.

Or is it? The team has been so annoyingly bad lately when it comes to shots and shot selection. Anaheim’s game saw 18 shots. The Sharks game? 26 (only 14 through the first 2 periods). The problem isn’t just shot volume, it’s shot selection. The team is passing up chances to put the puck on net in favor of passes through contested lanes. The power play is attempting to play around the world instead of making the goaltender move. And then, when a shot does offer itself, the team is going high, wide, or thinks that you get a point by hitting the goalie’s crest.

The team needs to trust itself, and that starts at the top with Keller. His shots/game is way down from last year. He’s passed up shots with a clear lane in favor of passing to Schmaltz in double coverage several times the past few games. He needs to lead by example, and throw the puck on the net and see what happens.

Vegas Power Play Needs to be neutralized. They’re red-red hot lately, posting a perfect 2/2 against New York, and 2/4 against Minnesota. They’ve been playing hard ever since getting embarrassed in overtime, losing to a short-handed goal against.

Their power play is getting it done right now all over. Their top goal scorer, Pavel Dorofeyev has lit the lamp, but so has Braeden Bowman (who?) and Shea Theodore.

Who hasn’t? Jack Eichel. He’s been ice cold in November. He’s been effective on the power play, but hasn’t been a scoring threat. He’s snakebit, like a few of the top forwards on the Mammoth, but he can break out in a PP anytime and still is dangerous as ever.

Projected Lineup:

TUSKS UP!