^{Hopefully the kids weren’t distracted by Disneyland}

After a 3 point homestand, the Utah Mammoth are back on the road for another back-to-back series. This time, Team Tusk is out in Anaheim, home of a mouse, a duck, and hopefully a W at the end of the day.

Today’s Anaheim Duck is not last year’s Anaheim Duck. All of a sudden, they’re a legitimate playoff contender. A team that hasn’t finished close to a playoff spot in years is one of the top teams in the Pacific Division. Posting an 11-6-0 record, for 23 points and a .639 win percentage, the Ducks rebuild is starting to pay off. This start is their best start in over 10 years, and they seem to be able to hang with the big boys in big games, something they couldn’t do for years.

Tonight is the first game of a 6 game homestand for the Ducks. The Ducks are 5-1-0 at home, with an impressive 4+ goals a game average, while shutting opponents down to just 2.3 goals a game. For the year, Anaheim gives up, on average 3.2 a game. In a weird twist of irony, Utah’s getting the exact same goal average as the Ducks give up, though lately their scoring has dried up significantly, just in time for the Ducks’ massive improvement on defense at home.

November for Anaheim has been a tale of two halves so far. The first 5 games of the month, Anaheim won each of those games – 4 in regulation – scoring 4 goals in each game (including 7 goals on consecutive wins). Since Veteran’s Day, however, they’ve lost 3 straight – all on the road – posting a total of 4 goals over those three games. That includes a shutout this weekend against Minnesota.

Anaheim boasts a better than league average power play, and a bottom 10 penalty kill. They tend to draw and receive about the same number of penalties; Utah is more disciplined, drawing more than receiving, so Utah may have an advantage. That assumes, however, the full day of drills they did on the PP unit actually makes a difference.

One of Anaheim’s biggest strengths is their youth and speed. They are extremely effective on the rush, which makes them fairly effective on 5 on 5 play. Their top three players on the rush – Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Chris Kreider – lead the charge with with a combined 33 goals.

Anaheim’s also benefitting from a resurgence in the play of Jacob Trouba on the blue line. A notorious pest and borderline dirty player, Trouba’s improved play has really helped push Anaheim’s defense into a strength they haven’t had in years.

Goaltending for Anaheim is a little split – Lukas Dostal, presumed starter, has nearly identical goals against average as both Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek, however his save percentage is quite a bit better than both of the Mammoth goalies.

Key points to secure a victory today:

Contain the Rush as mentioned, Anaheim is fantastic on the rush attack. Their speed and counter-attack is lethal. Utah’s shot suppression tactics are likely not going to help against this style of attack. Anaheim generates more than 30 shots a game – one of the highest volume shooting teams in the league – a shot volume even higher than the Mammoth.

Anaheim is shooting, on average over 12%, a top 10 rate in the league. To compare, Utah is shooting at under 10.8%. This is a function of higher value shots – and those are generated on a rush that prevents defenses from setting up properly.

Utah needs to use their speed to neutralize the Ducks rush and prevent as many odd-man situations as possible.

Focus on goaltending The goaltending for Utah has been OK lately. While stats aren’t supporting the case, Vejmelka has been playing well. However, unlike last year, Veggie isn’t stealing games. He’s been forced to position himself to save shots in high-danger areas far more than last year so far (Hurricane’s game excluded). He’s facing far fewer shots, but those that are getting to him are from the slot or are just terrible bounces that have him out of position.

Tonight, though, is a chance for him to shine. The Ducks, on the rush, produce a lot of high-danger attempts. However, this is actually something a goaltender can plan a bit for. It’s extremely difficult to know when and where a tip is going. On a 2 on 1, a good goaltender will know how to react, especially if the defenseman does his job. If so, he’ll be able to set his position, and when he does that, he’s hard to beat.

Puck Control is Critical While the first line is a scoring threat, Gauthier and his line has been outstanding for the Ducks. Gauthier himself is tied for 5th in the league with 12 goals and a +8 rating. His kid line has been extremely good with the puck, averaging less than 3 turnovers a game per player, and if they do lose possession, they throw themselves at shooters, averaging more than 4 blocks per game.

Utah’s kid line, now broken up, was averaging more than 2 times the turnover rate, and half the blocks. Worse, Keller and Schmaltz on the top line, give away almost 10 pucks a game between them.

If the Ducks get possession, they’re good with the puck. This is partly due to having a lot better control during rushes, but also because of smart decision making. Taking that out of their hands – by winning puck battles at the boards, face-offs, and limiting rush chances against – will go a long way to helping Utah limit the damage they can do.

Projected Lineup:

TUSKS UP!