^{Watching my first love and my current love battle is so conflicting…}

Confession time – if you don’t know me, you won’t know that I grew up an Islanders fan. I remained an Islanders fan through some fun times. But, if you know the Islanders, you know that some fun means mostly bad.

What do I mean by bad? I got to see a miracle run in 1993. They beat the dreaded Penguins – probably the top 5 most stacked teams in history – after an infamously disgusting play by Dale Hunter knocked out Pierre Turgeon. Turgeon was the key to most of the post-season, and when he went down, the hopes went down with him. Until they didn’t. Game 7, OT winner take all, on the road. Glorious. The Islanders ended up getting stomped by Patrick Roy and the Canadiens.

As only Islander fandom could deliver, Roy currently coaches the team to generally mediocre results. The hockey gods are funny, and the universe is cruel.

I endured Mike Milbury as a coach, a GM, and a mortician for a team’s future. I endured the Fish Sticks terrible rebrand jersey. I endured the Spano debacle, where he basically bought the Islanders for $1700 instead of $170M because of fraud. I endured 22 years of playoff drought.

What does this all mean? I’m intrinsically tied to the franchise. You can’t suffer that much disappointment by not investing fully in a team.

I always used to make fun of people with two fandoms. There was no reason someone moving from, say, Jersey to North Carolina could be a fan of both the Devils and Canes. That made no sense. Then, it happened. What I’d been talking about to my hockey friends for years suddenly happened. We got a relocated team, a team that was ours. I wasn’t moving to a state with an existing franchise I could love or hate. I was getting my own team. My wife and I weren’t adopting each other’s sports teams for a change – we were getting our very own, from day one.

What did it mean to me that Utah’s got a team? Living in Salt Lake for nearly 3 decades now, I consider it home. I have a home team now. I have a home to watch the best sport on Earth, with a team I am beyond fortunate enough to go to every game and see, with friends and fans and hopes and dreams tied to my current life. But, you’ll never forget your old one, and always love and miss them.

I did absolutely love when the Mammoth and Islanders won the lotto in the draft this year. There was literally nothing that could have been better. I watched my two kids get first and second place, and I couldn’t be happier – especially at the outcome, but I digress…

I get to enjoy 160 games a year. 2 games a year, I just want to see overtime hockey so the maximum points get distributed. It really helps being in completely different conferences. The only concern would be a Cup Final scenario, and that’s a scenario I’d willingly take.

Enough about me… let’s talk about the teams and what to expect.

The New York Islanders come to town on the tail end of a back-to-back against the Golden Knights. New York won with a shorthanded goal, in overtime, to give them 20 points, move them into a playoff position, and make my pre-season prediction they’d end up in the bottom of the East look like I’ve never seen hockey before. I’m OK with that.

The fuel for the Islanders’ run comes from aforementioned lottery win. Selecting first overall for the first time since 2009, when the Islanders selected noted pajama aficionado John Tavares. Tavares notably left the franchise in a terrible fashion in 2016, though it ironically helped the team become a playoff contender for a few years. A little bald coach helped, too.

This time, however, phenom and absolutely amazing unfolding story arrived in the form of one Matthew Schaefer. Schaefer is just 18 years and like 3 months old. He missed his last year of hockey after a broken collarbone. He basically jumped from 16 year old juniors to the NHL. Oh, and he’s broken multiple records already, including:

- Youngest player to log over 25 minutes of ice time, beating someone named Sidney Crosby.
- Youngest player to score a game-winning goal.
- Fastest 1OA defenseman to 10 points (12 games) vs. Aaron Ekblad's 15.
- Youngest defenseman to record a point in his debut.
- Youngest defenseman to record a multi-point game, beating someone named Bobby Orr.
- Youngest defenseman in the modern era to score 2 goals in a game.
- Third youngest player in the modern era to score 2 goals in a game.
- Rookie of the month in his first month in the league.

And if all that isn’t impressive enough, he’s tied for first with goals as a defenseman. The guy he’s tied with? Cale Makar. From the Avalanche, a team who can actually produce offense.

Schaefer is good. Really good. REALLY GOOD. He’ll possibly show up in key points below…

The Islanders are also seeing some amazing play by one Bo Horvat. Not known as a pure goal scorer, Horvat is second in the league with 12 tallies, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon (14) as tied for 2nd place. That 2nd place company includes Leon Draisaitl, Cole Caufield, and Martin Necas. Man, Colorado has offense for days.

Goaltending for the Islanders has been very good lately, but struggled early on. Main starter, Ilya Sorokin, will not be in net tonight as the Islanders have David Rittich manning the pipes.

Key points to secure a victory today:

Jump on Rittich Early David Rittich is a Jekyll and Hyde player. Capable of 35 saves a game with a .940+ save percentage, he’s just as likely to give up 5+ goals with a barely .800. His last two outings were 2GA vs. Columbus, then shelled for 5 against Minnesota. Before that? 6 from Carolina and 2 starts with 77 saves between them. Who are we going to see? Not even Rittich knows.

The earlier you can get to Rittich, the more he seems to spiral. Give him a 20 save 1st period, he’s likely going to stop everything else thrown his way. Hit him like Minnesota did (2G in 12 mins) and he’s likely to spot you 5.

Rittich is an enigma even for Islanders fans. It’s best to solve those quickly, because if you don’t, the puzzle gets harder and more frustrating as you go.

Shut down Horvat, make Barzal beat you A sacrilegious take from an Islanders fan, but I’ve always felt Barzal was very overrated as a shooter and very underrated as a Corsi machine. Barzal dips and ducks and steals pucks and makes passes and will do things that’ll amaze you. He’ll carry a puck for 4 minutes of overtime without breaking a sweat. Then, he’ll wind up a shot and hit the dead center of a goalie’s chest.

Barzal has an uncanny ability to find blockers and gloves. He’s about 10% shooting for his career, below the average 12% standard NHL forward. He’s better so far this year, but that’s because he’s benefitting from having Schaefer out there as a legitimate threat on the blue line. He’s fantastic on breakaways, though, so there’s that to watch out for.

Horvat, however, is generally close to league average, with about 13% career shooting percentage. He’s 21% today. For non-math nerds, he scores 1 out of 5 shots. Add to the scoring threat his playmaking and ability to drive the top line. He’s got 10 assists to his 12 goals. And he plays everywhere – PP, PK, 6 on 5, 5 on 6. He’s got more SHG’s alone than the Mammoth as a team do. He’s dangerous everywhere.

Coaches plan against the top line and focus on Barzal’s playmaking ability. It’s smart. But, if you really want to beat the Islanders top line right now, you force Barzal to beat you. If you give Horvat the opportunity because you’ve focused too much on Barzal, you’ve already gotten burned.

Plan for Schaefer Let me be honest – the kid has 17 games to his career. He has next to no footage last year because he was hurt in juniors. He’s gone up against McDavid and Draisaitl. Neither scored when he was on the ice. He’s faced off against Ovi, twice. No goals from the greatest goal scorer in history (but Schaefer has one). He came to this league on a mission, and he’s defensively far more mature for being in grade school when the pandemic hit.

Does that make you feel old? Makes me feel old.

Schaefer’s strengths are in his hockey vision and his speed. He plays at the NHL level like he’s still in Junior league. He sees passes, lanes, and knows when to pinch and when to get back. He’s smooth as a skater, he’s fast, and he is the only real puck moving defenseman that the Islanders have. If you can pin the Islanders in their zone, and somehow keep Schaefer from a breakout, there are few chances for the Islanders to get a defensive pairing that’ll get the train started.

BONUS CONTENT ALERT:
I know the Islanders really well, so here’s a few more tips that’ll work for Utah’s favor tonight:

Alexander Romanov – one of my favorite players for the past few years, Rommy is playing poorly. Like, really poorly. Utah can exploit this matchup with speed. A Guenther/Cooley/Peterka matchup against Romanov’s line will see more advantage than disadvantage. Rommy’s supposed to be a defensive defenseman, but he’s definitely offensive to watch this year.

Rush Chances: Sticking with defensemen that are terrible, if you want odd-man rushes and clean breakaways on the Islanders, pressure Tony DeAngelo. TDA gives up a lot of miscues at the blue line, and is responsible for many a swear word.

TDA and Romanov, combined, have a 28+ xGA meaning that when they’re on the ice in their respective lines, teams against them are expected to score 28 goals, while only contributing +17 for. A -11 net differential for 2 defenseman on the same team is… disastrous.

Faceoffs – Utah will lose at the dot. Badly. Horvat wins like 6/10 times, Pageau even more than Horvat. These lines are the lines that see the majority of faceoffs (close to 65-70% of the time, it feels like, and 100% of the time in critical situations like OT). If the Mammoth can force Barzal to take the draw, he’s pretty bad. The Islander 4th line’s faceoffs are terrible, so getting them to ice the puck will be a huge advantage for Utah.

Islander PK The Mammoth PP needs to watch out. While the PP has had some opportunity lately, the style of play the Mammoth use are ripe for abuse. The backdoor passes won’t work, play at the blue lines can and will be disrupted. The best way to beat the Islanders PK is to make them run around undisciplined, and that’s hard to do under the current system.

Why is this a potential threat to us? The Islanders have a tandem in Pageau and Holmstrom that are dangerous. Pageau takes almost all the PK draws, winning over 60%. Getting early possession, the Islanders clear early. If and when they’re able to stop zone entry (or pressure at the line) any chance Pageau and Holmstrom have to go, they go. And they score. A lot.

Want perspective? Utah has 4 short handed goals in their history (99 games), Pageau has 4 shorthanded points (2G/2A including game winner last night) in just 17 games. Since last year? 12 points in 96 games.

Anders Lee – will stand in front of Veggie as many times as possible in the game. And, realistically, I don’t think any defenseman we have can knock him out of the way consistently. Cole’s somewhat big, and fortunately for Cole, he and Lee are both slower skaters – which won’t matter standing in front of the net anyway. Sergachev/Simashev are both bigger, but Simashev might not quite have that adult-muscle strength. The Mammoth may have to rely on the 3rd line (McBain/Crouse) to cover him, but Lee can potentially be a big problem for Utah.

Anders Lee has some of the best hand-eye coordination of any hockey players I’ve seen. I swear that if put on an MLB team, he’d have a legitimate shot at actually hitting major league pitchers. He’s big, he tips pucks, and he’s going to be hard to defend against.

Closing:
I expect the Mammoth to win this game, as their speed should be a little too hard for the Islanders to handle. Coming off a back-to-back overtime game, with increased altitude, and losing an hour from the time zone will factor in.

Projected Lineup:
No word from Bear, but these lines are subject to a Ninja blender at any time:

Injury note:
Sean Durzi not expected to play, but I had his injury timeline to be about the 11th. So, one game overdue. With how DeSimone stepped in, they may not rush him back, but he should be ready soon.

Game time 7PM local at the Delta Center. I’ll be there (don’t boo my Islanders jersey, I’ll be wearing Utah gear underneath).

TUSKS UP!