^{Why do so many kids taunt Toronto about their last cup win?}

Toronto, the birthplace for a certified something, hosts Utah tonight. Utah is playing the second of a “Back to Back”. Toronto is still trying to figure their new identity, as it was “God’s Plan” to send Mitch Marner packing. They’re “Not Like Us”; we have been gaining high level talent instead of losing it. Utah’s looking to “HUMBLE.” them tonight, and give the Leafs a Kendrick Lamar level beatdown. “DAMN.”

Corniness aside, this will be a good test for a young and scrappy Utah team. The Mammoth are coming off a difficult win against Buffalo. The game, featuring a lot of hits, a lot of tough defense, and bonus time, took a toll on a Utah team playing their 6th game on the road in the last 7. Seeing how they respond to a talented, though fundamentally changed Toronto team, could be a glimpse into what the team does late in the season, during a playoff push.

Toronto is off to a fairly good start, though the Maple Leafs fans and Toronto media would like to pretend otherwise. A 7-5-1 record (15 pts) has them currently sitting fourth in the division, behind Montreal, Detroit, and Boston. Shockingly, the Florida teams are struggling, and with the upstarts in Michigan and Quebec, Toronto finds itself in unfamiliar territory with (mostly) unfamiliar competition at the top of the pecking order.

What to expect from Toronto:
The Maple Leafs remain one of the most potent offenses in the league. Currently, they’re outscoring almost everyone – including the high octane Mammoth. Toronto is netting 47 goals in 13 games, a shade higher than Utah’s 45. Despite very similar offensive numbers, however, there are major differences between the clubs performance.

Toronto’s top line drives the majority of their offense… but their top line is fairly fluid. Tavares-Nylander-Knies will often swap in Austin Matthews to spark the team, usually as a result of a deficit. The true top line has scored 50 points, but the new Core Fore Four account for almost 50% of all points scored.

Utah, by contrast, runs several lines with offensive talent. The Keller-Schmaltz-Hayton and Cooley-Guenther-Peterka lines have spread the wealth around, as Utah rolls a third and fourth line recently rejuvinated. Lawson Crouse and Michael Carcone have been dynamic, and Kailer Yamamoto is a whirling dervish on the 4th line over the past 2 games.

The differences don’t stop there, however, as Toronto loves to give up as many goals as they get. They’re giving up top 5 goals against per game, behind an injury riddled Senators team, as well as San Jose and St. Louis – two teams we padded stats against with 6 and 7 goals against, respectively.

Utah’s goaltending tandem is also slightly superior to Toronto’s. Likely starter, Vitek Vanecek, has been consistent in 2 goals against per game, with a save percentage just over .900. Leafs starter, Anthony Stolarz, has been good considering the beating his porous defense leaves him in – he’s faced 300 shots already in 10 games. Utah goalies, together, have faced 314 all season. Save percentages are similar, with Stolarz at .896, but that shot volume against has been brutal for him all season, and he’s got a 3.12 GAA so far.

As the goalie difference highlights, the two franchises have different styles of play as well; the Mammoth have been suffocating shot attempts and shots against, tied for 7th in the league with shots against, and has a +53 shot differential so far this year, despite being in the bottom 10 clubs in total attempts. Toronto, meanwhile, is middle of the pack for shots, though have been outshot in most of their games to date.

Both teams struggle massively in the second period; Toronto gives up the most 2nd period goals in the league, an impressive stat considering we all watch the Mammoth games and their efforts in the mid-20.

Key points to secure a victory today:

Contain the First Line Toronto’s stars get paid to get points, just not in the playoffs. As mentioned, 4 of the players score 50% of the points. Their top line is heavy, and their bottom 2.5 lines are finding trouble being consistent.

Toronto hasn’t been overly productive on the power play, as most of their goals have come 5v5. The fact that Toronto fields a PP1 unit of Matthews, Knies, Tavares, and Nylander – effectively their first line+ means containing them 5v5 and special teams should strangle the rest of the team overall.

It is odd that a line featuring those 4 is only producing at a 12% rate on the power play when good at 5v5. Perhaps Utah can rope-a-dope and pretend to be on the PK all night long.

Win a 2nd period. The Mammoth had a massive 2nd period against Buffalo. By massive, I mean they didn’t get caved in. Holding their own and keeping the score close, not losing the second period was a great boon.

They’re facing a team who, somehow, is far worse than they are. This is a good chance to exorcise the demon. Toronto’s offense isn’t particularly potent for the 2nd, so taking advantage of youth and speed during the long change, can catch one of the older teams in the league by surprise.

Team Defense Needs to keep pace with what they did in Buffalo. Toronto has the best shot percentage in the league. They score on about 6% of total shots. While that may not seem like much, higher shot volume for them means they’ll likely score more goals.

Toronto doesn’t score greasy goals, and their high-danger area goals are extremely low for a team like theirs. They play a fast, open game. This type of game, however, is prone to making mistakes. They are close to top in the league in turnovers.

If Utah can keep lanes and passes blocked, or at least extremely difficult, the better Team Tusk will be. Give a speedy team a turnover in their defensive end, and you’ll likely find an odd-man rush or three on the counter and defensive zone turnovers because of forechecks should provide additional opportunities for the good guys.

Stick Taps: Chris Tanev, brother of beloved newcomer Brandon, was carted off the ice after a hit the other day. He’s out of the hospital, but will not play. It will be a treat to see the brothers face off, but for now, we’re glad that he’s recovering and OK.

Projected Lineup:
If it ain’t broke…. Vitek in net.

Game time 5 PM local.

TUSKS UP!