^{April showers bring May flowers, but November brings some Lightning}

October was very kind to the Mammoth. There were several milestones hit last month: Utah had a record 7 game win-streak, saw the first ever hat trick at home (followed one game later by another), ended the month tied for first place… not only in the division, but for the entire Western conference, and at one point, tied for the best record in the league.

The month ended on a poor note, as a tired Mammoth team ran out of gas in the 2nd and 3rd periods in Edmonton. Still, had you told any Mammoth fan they’d be 8-3, with 5 wins against divisional opponents (including 3 in a row on the road, all in regulation), you might get some strange looks. Sure, the Utah Hockey Club started out hot last year for the first few games, but they fell to the middle of the pack after the second week and basically stayed there all year.

As the calendar turns, Utah finds itself falling from first to third place. This is thanks to fewer games played as Winnipeg, who won their game yesterday, sits 2 points above Utah. Colorado, with 2 more games played, sits atop the division. Colorado has lost 6 of 13 games, but has 5 loser points from those games.

Below Utah, teams are also surging. Dallas has a 6 game point streak, despite losing 3 of 6 games and Chicago has 10 points since facing Utah 8 games ago.

With a tightening division, the Mammoth finally make their way home for a game, before turning back around for another 4 game road trip which sees Utah play back-to-back twice. With a 4 day break between their game in Edmonton, a rested Utah team is looking to start a new win streak before heading back east.

Today, the Tampa Bay Lightning come to town for the first of two meetings between the clubs. Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams in the league since before the pandemic hit, with 2 Cups and solid playoff runs each year since. It’s no wonder the league was surprised when they started out slow, losing 5 of their first 6 and occupying the bottom of the Atlantic. However, the Lightning have found their stride lately, winning 4 straight, including two wins over divisional opponents (Nashville, Dallas in OT).

The Lightning have had a mediocre record so far on the road, going 2-1-2. Utah has been a perfect 4-0-0 at the Delta Center, looking to keep that streak alive. Someone’s going to have 5 wins in a row before the day is over. Might as well be us.

Fun fact: Third line defenseman Charles-Edouard D’Astous is likely to play against the Mammoth tonight. Utah fans may be familiar with him. He helped bring the Utah Grizzlies deep into the playoffs a few years ago, and was the ECHL player of the year. This will be his first trip back to Utah, in slightly more luxurious settings than he had before.

Key points to secure a victory today:

Don’t give up an early lead Tampa scores early, and all 5 wins, and one OT loss, have come when Tampa scores first. Tampa ended up losing in regulation just once after starting with the lead, against the pre-injury Ottawa Tkachucks.

The Lightning defense is pretty formidable. A high-octane offense has slowed as they age, but their top two defensive unit of Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, backstopped by Conn Smythe and Vezina trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, make it hard for teams to come back from behind.

Additionally, John Cooper is one of the best coaches in the game. Even without last line change, he’s great at countering units to keep games close. Only 2 of Tampa’s games have been one goal affairs.

Exploit the third D pairing. Two strong lines up front make Tampa a solid defensive unit, but the last line (with aforementioned friend, D’Astous) is fairly weak. D’Astous is 4 games deep into the NHL, and from experience watching him play at the Maverik Center, he’s more offensively gifted than defensively sound.

Emil Lilleberg on the other side, is penalty prone. He’s got 3 fights under his belt already to complement 8 minor penalties. As a result, he averages the 2nd most penalty minutes in the NHL per game, second only to Ross Johnston, who has 5 fighting majors.

If Utah can use its speed and heavy forechecking against the third pairing, they should be able to force this unit into turnovers and penalties.

Win the faceoff battle. Tampa has struggled to win faceoffs this year. They’re one of 4 teams performing worse than the Mammoth at the dot. This is hurting all their lines, but most notably top line of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov. This line produced over 280 points last season, with Kucherov logging 121 to lead the NHL in total points. Point and Guentzel also produced 80+ each. They were +57 in 2024 combined.

This year, the line has produced just 10% of that, with 28 points in 11 games. They’re also -15 in that span. This is partially due to decreased offensive zone time for the trio, as Point’s face-off percentage plummeted this year. He’s only 42% so far, far below his statistical average.

Winning the faceoffs keeps Tampa’s top scoring line from establishing presence in the offensive zone, limiting their chances and giving Utah an advantage for notching that critical first goal.

Projected Lineup: *as of 1AM
Yamamoto in for O’Brien, though matching up against Lilleberg it may be prudent to keep LOB in.

Game time 1:30 PM local.

TUSKS UP!